Where are the cephalopod fossils?
By - wardyh92
Try the mud fossil locations
I’ve collected all of today’s fossils but I’ll try tomorrow
>the fossil spawns are truly random
That’s weird then. Because the one fossil I need to complete my collection is the one that doesn’t seem to exist. I have at least two or three of nearly every other fossil so statistically, I’m way overdue for a cephalopod.
You're not overdue for anything. It's random. If you flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row you still have a 50% chance at getting an 11th heads. That's how random works. You have a 1 in 20 chance of getting each fossil, not getting one specific one after 50 tries is still in a standard deviation of chance.
Okay I suck at numbers but if it’s a 1 in 20 chance and I’ve collected let’s say 60 fossils, I should have found around 3 by now right?
I’m just saying it’s weird that literally the only fossil I needed this week is the only one that can’t be found. I was wondering if maybe they make it rarer if it’s needed for a timed challenge?
You should have found between 0 and 60 of them. It's random.
I’m talking about probability.
The odds of not getting 1 of the 20 fossils after 60 attempts is 0.95\^60 which is 4.6%. So out of every 100 people who grab 60 fossils, about 5 people will still be missing one. Like I've been saying, that's how random probability works.
The random objects all have a probability. Some are more common than others. It’s the same way with coins, arrowheads, and jewelry. On the jeanropke map when you click on one of the spots there’s a link to the loot table. It tells you the probability of an object spawning.
Even if R\* had set up a straight-up randomized system (which they didn't), you could expect to have to visit 72 Fossil spots before finding each of the 20 Fossils once. To put it simply, that's how much randomization "sucks".
To make matters worse (and decrease our chances even further), they've created various categories (common, uncommon, rare / buried snow, buried water, buried mud, etc. etc.). Each category has a probability modifier associated with it.
If u/Raccooninja did not factor these modifiers into his calculation, the odds of not getting the Cephalopod after 60 attempts are even higher.
When trying to complete Fossil collections, I just went up to Colter and collected the ones that are close to each other. If you do that often enough, you'll start to complete collections eventually.
That’s exactly what I’ve been doing for nearly a week.
yeah, I hear ya.
It can be frustrating,
I'd just keep plugging away at the low hanging fruit up in Colter.
I kept selling off "duplicates" as soon as I had about 7 in my inventory.
All of a sudden I started getting the fossils I was missing, sometimes even back-to back.
The percentage would be higher if the fossil was more rare, not lower. You people aren't very good at math. If it was more rare there would be more people who did not get one. Say it had half the chance of any other fossil, it would be .975\^60 which is a 21.9% chance of not getting one after 60 tries.
And without knowing if there even is a rarity feature on fossils, and without knowing what the actual rarity is, your point is moot.
You're right, I went sideways after editing the post a few times.
The percentage of not getting one after 60 tries is higher. The probability of finding one is lower.
We do know there is a rarity feature on fossils though. We also know there are several categories of dig sites. Each dig site has a modifier attached to it. It's in the game files.
"Was" in the game files. Location based was before they changed it to random. But feel free to provide it.