County Level 2020 Census data was released today. Here's a quick overview.
By - PeddlerOfMisery
Keep in mind that these are the 2020 estimates rather than the 2020 actual figures for each county. They have already released the statewide tallies and the estimates were off in various parts of the country, including the entire state of Illinois that was supposed to be down by more than a quarter million people but in the end only lost 18k statewide.
I'm cautiously optimistic the actual numbers will be a bit better.
.64% change as a region.
Everyday we be shufflin'
Also, when you are shrinking by 7% you don't need to worry about gentrification.
Two wards worth of people were not displaced in the city.
It'll be interesting to see the eventual ward breakdown by Paul Fehler. I assume most of the losses will be in North City.
Edit: Or at least the biggest losses.
That’s the slowest decade of growth for St. Charles County since the 1940 census when it increased only 5.0% from the 1930 census. This is also less than half of the 27.0% growth between 2000 and 2010😬
Keep in mind these numbers that just came out are estimates only, so not really an apples to apples comparison yet. Actual 2020 census data could look different.
Edit: Although I think the trend you point out will be true anyways, because that was actually found to be true at the national level as well, slowest growth since 1930's.
There are only so many whites to flight. Look at overall STL MO-IL growth: basically 1.7k people a year net when high growth areas like the denver MSA add more people in a year than stl did in a decade
> when high growth areas like the denver MSA add more people in a year than stl did in a decade
People are already being priced out of Denver. There is a reverse migration trend from the coasts that covid has really accelerated. 2nd tier western cities are the first to benefit (Denver, Phoenix, Boise, Austin, Houston) and the south (Atlanta, Nashville, Miami).
Eventually once people are priced out of those cities, the migration will continue toward the middle of the country. The next tranche (KC, St. Louis, OKC) and the other rust belt cities should be up to bat in the next decade.
I say all of this as a recent transplant from the PNW. I moved here because I could never afford to own a place of my own in Seattle. I was saving for a down payment on a ridiculously overpriced condo that I could never actually afford. I came to the realization that I could literally buy a place outright with cash here in St. Louis just with that down payment savings.
My loft that I bought in the low 100s on Wash Ave would easily go for half a million in my old city. Yes, St. Louis has issues but so does every other large metropolitan city.
I'll steal a line from Cara Spencer and say that I'm bullish on St. Louis. You have a large metropolitan city, that is likely protected from the worst of climate change, and most importantly you have a lot of cheap real estate. That is a recipe for long-term success.
I appreciate your optimism. My wife is from Seattle and she is really pushing her best friend to move to St. Louis. Primarily for the reasons you gave.
I wouldn't rule our climate change as a big factor in the future as well. Something tells me that states like Arizona may not sustain the growth they've seen if the temperatures continue climbing.
Water issues seem to be the more likely driver.
St louis does have one significant advantage over much of the west and some of the southern states: fresh water.
Being at the confluence of the 2 largest rivers in the country certainly is a resource that cannot be discounted going forward with the challenges foreseen
Moved back to the area from DC a few years ago. I’ve upgraded primary homes two times in the city the past 2 years and have retained the two former homes as rentals, planning on doing it again later this year, concentrating on Debv/Skinker and CWE....I’m very bullish on the city the next 20 years, these all brick homes are so darn solid, neighborhoods I’m in get better every day, I’m pumped to be in before the wave.
Boom. Once printing building jumps into the ring cheap land will become expensive.
It’s guaranteed to happen, as assets like housing inflates it will naturally make its way here, eventually.
Well known fact that housing bubbles never pop.
Really the only reason I moved to St. Charles county was because I could build a brand new house for the price of a 1950s ranch in St. Louis County. Much more house for the dollar.
This subreddit loves to shit on SCC but fail to recognize that Saint Peters/O'Fallon are regularly put on lists as some of top spots to live in the entire nation.
So it makes sense of people moving to the area choose SCC to live in if they are outside of Missouri.
White flight is defined as white people moving away from diversifying areas into new white centers....it doesn’t necessarily mean those people are moving within the region. As St. Charles is overwhelmingly white, and presuming most of its growth over the past decade was white (not a bad assumption in my estimation) the growth of St. Charles County is almost by definition white flight.
Actually, re-read what I wrote. Your stats confirm exactly what I said
I’d love to continue this charade of an argument but since you like editing your posts after I respond I think I’ll move on. Have a good night
They pointed out that St. Charles is less white. That is the exact opposite of white flight.
Guy edits his comments after I replied to him, adding his stats. I’ve got better shit to do than argue with him or you
Your reasoning is flawed. Someone moving from Washington MO to St. Charles isn't white flight. I think your dislike and condescension for them is showing.
I am not anti-St. Charles County. The bigger story is that yes St. Charles County is the biggest growing part of this MSA, but compared to the parts of other MSAs that are the top growers, St. Charles County is barely budging. It’s like “it’s St. Louis great”, but compared to its peers it’s not doing nearly as well as it should be. Also, don’t let the uptick in housing permits dupe your data, because the eastern half of the county is growing older in building stock and thus the number of people per household are dropping. Newly built subdivisions are home to a disproportionate amount of families with large household sizes, but as time goes by the kids grow up and move out, meaning a lot of the new housing construction in the west is used to just offset declining household sizes in the east. Eventually it will come to the point where without densification, the population growth falls flat and even starts to decline even with elevated amounts of new construction occurring. Thankfully the growth in St. Charles county has been somewhat slow and steady since the 1970s, which in turn is spreading out and lengthening the drop in household size for existing building stock and thus taking the blunt climax out of this phenomenon.
Personally I think the biggest case supporting regionalism, is if you took St. Charles County and put it in Dallas it would be growing a heck of a lot faster...or in Charlotte, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, or DC.
Except.... That never happens. People age in place and the population drops as household size decreases. St. Peters will be Florissant in 10 years.
297,645 roentgen. Not great, not terrible.
A loss of 20k seems pretty bad but still could have been worse.
While not good at all, St. Louis City came out of this better than expected by a lot of people. Many predicted the number would be below 290,000.
If these numbers don't show people we need to start thinking regionally, I don't know what will.
Nothing will. The region will respond by the furthest west saying "fuck you we're fine" and keep on keeping on with white flight, structural racism, electing actual morons to the state legislature, proliferating guns so they can have them stolen out of their glove box at a cardinals game, whining when we consider charging them for using the zoo, and pretending like their podunk muni would matter without the city.
Same as always.
> whining when we consider charging them for using the zoo
Assuming you mean everyone outside of City/County. Considering the County pays for 80% of the zoos funding.
Due note, I would be fine with charging everyone else.
I do love how the city likes to act like the county is free loading when we foot a respectable amount of taxes and are primarily the ones spending the money in the city.
I was always referencing St. Charles County when I think of county free loaders. We always know when the County folks come in, especially for their Sunday morning brunches because they drive like absolute trash in the city and can't parallel park worth a damn.
Yeah for the most part I never really see too many people railing against STL Co except for not hopping on board and helping more out when it comes to the stuff like Better Together
This attitude is why the county won't merge with the city any time soon.
Well, that's certainly a positive and uplifting comment!
You want positive or do you want reality?
Everyone knows what the reality of the situation is. You didn't state anything that we all don't already know. What I wrote was how the reality -- stated in clear numerical data -- needs to bring about a new way of thinking, which is to think regionally.
Yes, everything is the other guys' fault.
I mean in St. Louis’ case there are many neutral observers saying the same thing. It’s a classic case of white flight and segregation.
If you look at the numbers it has actually shifted to black flight. Young educated white people are moving into the City proper and African Americans are moving out of the City into north St. Louis County. White flight was and is a reality, but it’s mostly not a City phenomenon anymore.
That’s the current trend, but the underlying cause of that and many other regional issues at a macro level is the area’s history of racial discrimination.
Cool, enjoy living in your crime ridden shit hole. Try not to get murdered.
Successfully not been murdered yet! Thanks for the well wishes!
I've been successfully murdered 3 times since living in the city!
I’m surprised the city numbers aren’t worse. I’d love to stay in the city forever but between the crime and public schools I know I won’t be able to when we start a family.
I know I’m contributing to the “white flight” but most people don’t have the time to wait out for the city to fix its issues.
The city numbers went down because of black flight at this point. North city is bottoming out, and wealthier college educated whites are converting multi family houses to single family’s in the central corridor.
We have a young family, and are concerned with schools but as I dig into the magnet and charter system I’m not as worried.
We the city has like 2-3 of the best high schools in the state, and the unfortunate fact that school performance tracks to household income means it’ll change as the city gets richer, which it has based on the demographic changes above.
For most people, it is unacceptable that decent public schools are only available on a charter or magnet basis.
We are also a young family in the city and unfortunately I am a bit afraid of our future here. First, there is the issue of crime. While many people (including myself) have become desensitized, I absolutely do not think that it is normal in a developed country to raise kids while hearing gunfire outside. Then, while I am a liberal myself, I am a bit afraid of the discourse in some progressive circles against Charter schools and "gentrification".
City living liberal here. Facing the same tough choices as you and the others as we get ready ready for the birth of our first. I want to stay and support the city and raise a child in a diverse neighborhood, but it's hard (impossible) to ignore the reality of poor school choices and public safety. It's hard to know what our next steps will be, and it's unfortunate because I do love city living.
For the most part, yes. Certainly exacerbated those issues.
Did you mean to comment to me?
You might take a second look at city schools. While some schools are bad others are amazing. My daughter is in an great elementary and on track to go to the best high school in the state.
See the magnet / charter schools I just don’t have a good grasp on. Aren’t they on a lottery basis? I would just be concerned it wouldn’t work out for whatever reason. The school closest to us is Roosevelt and I couldn’t let a child go there
Getting a good spot in the lottery isn’t hard, especially if your child can test into the gifted schools.
Right. But if your kid has a learning disability, then no way gifted schools in the city are gonna work out.
I haven’t had to deal with learning disabilities but my daughter needs speech therapy, the charter/magnet schools have been great about providing it
As far as I can tell from demographic data, the city is hemorrhaging black residents while remaining nearly constant in white residents. In fact, the city is whiter than it’s been in three decades.
The county is hemorrhaging white residents and gaining black ones, presumably ones fleeing north/southeast city.
Maybe one day, the white flighters in the county will look around and realize the people they fled are all around them and decide that better cooperation with the city won’t hurt too much after all.
Black residents are moving to north county, white residents are moving to St. Charles county, Franklin Co, Jeffco. Younger college educated white residents are moving back into the city (slowly, but it’s happening).
You and the previous comment have a grip on the numbers and the reality. I won’t condemn anyone for living anywhere they choose, but the reality of the situation is that the City is becoming populated with younger and better educated people while losing more poor people with multiple children and less education. According to the stats (grain of salt) that’s a fact. I am sad that there are so many poor people with poor education and multiple children in general, but the tide from City to County and vice versa has reversed. Time will tell. What makes me sad is all the people leaving north St. Louis chasing a suburban dream in NOCO only to find out that the PostWar home they bought has already reached its “planned obsolescence” expiration date and that systemic problems are following them.
Webster Groves’ and Kirkwood’s school enrollment is booming and so are the number of new construction McMansions.
Looks like white families with school-age kids leave the city and head to St. Louis County for the school system.
> As far as I can tell from demographic data, the city is hemorrhaging black residents while remaining nearly constant in white residents. In fact, the city is whiter than it’s been in three decades.
Yep, St. Louis city will have a white majority again by 2024. The Team 4 plan, proposed in the 1970s and carried out covertly, managed this mischief wonderfully.
Ah yes. Their dastardly 50 year plan will be complete in only two more decades.
Those are less bad numbers than I expected. Here's to hoping there will be some sort of push towards better regional co-operation before the 2030 census.
Of course Monroe is the only IL county to gain population.
You ever notice when someone moves to "Get away from all this craziness" or whatever... they never go somewhere that's MORE diverse?
Great image of Blue flight. Don't move somewhere and vote for people that will bring the things you are leaving.
I’m just trying to understand the people who work downtown and live in Wentzville somehow feeling like that commute is better than just living in a diverse community 10 minutes from work. Hey, your loss!
I drive from Waterloo. It's because I grew up here. And don't want to move. I wouldn't have the same support I have now if I moved to the city or STL county.
Have you considered that the diversity of their community is one of the least important factors when determining where to live for most people? Or that those with families don't want to send their kids to lesser public schools? Another crazy thought: some people just don't like living in cities. You admittedly don't understand this but space, quiet, and low crime are also important to some.
I live in Lincoln Co and Work in STL Co. I make the 60 mile commute because I hate having neighbors closer than 200 yrds. in any direction.
Some people have kids born with special needs and they have to make the tough choices and put their kids first.
And I bet you still tell people you’re “from St Louis”
Be honest- exurbia. And you have no right to comment or criticize the city when you live 40 minutes away from it.
You live 40 miles away from the metro center. Yes, exurbia.
My bad. 33.5 miles. You got me
Your profile says O'Fallon, MO. I guess you spend an inordinate amount of time in the City Neighborhoods between there and downtown? Please, detail you life in those neighborhoods, and then admit that you're 40 minutes from downtown when traffic is light. You're definitely the only person alive who thinks that O'Fallon isn't an exurb.
Well, our police force is a corrupt nightmare of drunkards and racist murderers and if you’re a criminal you’re likely to be murdered by another criminal; but I lived in Webster Groves for 12 years and have experienced less crime in South City than I ever did in the suburbs. But again, you don’t have to convince me. You’re the guy who has to drive 45 minutes to eat somewhere better than Applebee’s
Difference is, all of those things are 10 minutes from my house, whereas you’re driving 20+ just for the ones west of the Missouri River. 45 minutes to the originals. Again, your loss
You sound like a pompous ass. No offense.
Do you think my username is some kind of joke?
You live in O’Fallon. How long to drive to Schafly’s original location? Or Pappy’s? Or Sugarfire’s original Olivette place (which is still garbage BBQ), or Salt and Smoke on Delmar, or Clementines on 18th St? Or *gasp* Napoli’s Clayton spot? And it’s always you culture vampires in the exurbs who claim ownership over all of this. Until you pay for the Zoo, sit down. You mooch off of all of us who live in and work in the city and don’t even thank us for doing so.
> there are more people moving from SCC to the City than from the City to SCC
Didn't you say this elsewhere in the thread? I appreciate your passion for SCC but don't get the city vitriol while also saying this.
Some people don’t mind the commute and like being in rural spaces. Not me personally, but I get it. Suburbia though? Hell no.
They don’t though. Jobs aren’t concentrated downtown anymore. The farthest commute a lot of people probably have now is to Chesterfield or Clayton.
I get DMA but can they stop listing Illinois with Missouri. We can't fix Southern Illinois problems.
"Designated market area"?
Yes. Its like how they always mess up our crime stats. I wish we just took over southern Illinois. Not like cook county and Springfield would notice.
The metro east messes up crime stats?? A no the City of St. Louis does that all by itself.
Thanks! Began a dive into the distinction between DMAs and MSAs, then realized i was too tired to care enough about the details.
We would... No desire to live in your backwards state.
not good news for housing market.
I wonder why everyone is moving out of the city?
lol just kidding. In before STL is the new Detroit.
Abolish the St. Louis city and have it become apart of St. Louis county. This is an embarrassment to St. Louis and has never been heard of in any other major city in the USA
There are a few independent cities left. Most are in Virginia, but Baltimore Maryland and Carson City Nevada are same as STL.
NOT the 2020 Census counts - these are annual estimates that get released every year. The actual numbers from the decennial census will be released later this year.