When Apes tell you future rolls can happen until September 17th expirations
By - Criand
They were doing it one week IN ADVANCE to be on the safe side
Now that they know that we know what they are doing
and some apes focused on Sep 9th as THE DATE
they are going to do it AS LATE AS POSSIBLE
Please Note: Not recommending day trading or anything else based on these dates
> They were doing it one week IN ADVANCE to be on the safe side
In my mind, they are constantly testing the waters. They'll throw a FUD attack coordinated with MSM and see if it sticks. It didn't? Okay, let's change strategies and try again. I'm convinced today's bounce back has been due to both retail buying that tasty dip AND hedgies trying to see if their strategy worked.
Now imagine testing the waters when there is a tsunami. Hedgies r fuk.
Watching the patterns since we recently rocketed to 220. I think they're rolling some over now slowly.
We have had a few spikes up of +$7-10 in a minute or two followed by laddering back down.
I feel like they're doing a small percentage of the roll overs. Then opening new shorts or ladder attacks or what ever to walk the price back down. Then they repeat this process a few times per day.
Maybe trying to bleed it as much as they can in a controlled manner so when they finish the roll over it might not hit the danger zone?
Disclaimer I'm smooth as glass. Not financial advice
Maybe that is what caught us back up to 200 yesterday. Tanked price followed by controlled rollovers to put the price right back to where it was.
Can't be sure but I feel it wasn't a retail buying frenzy imo.
Yeah no way retail has enough money to push the price like that. The only thing retail was doing was not selling, which helped.
Hopefully the reason for it could be a much lower margin ceiling for them. The more individual retail investors buy and hold, the lower it will go.
And if registering shares is indeed as effective as we think, they will likely not make it through the liquidity strain end of the quarter.
It seems to me all the financial institutions work together to keep this under control, so might throw the hot potato around for some time even if members get liquidated, but eventually all shorts have to cover, so someone will dash to the door first. And it will be epic.
Volume still way lower than the last run up, so either they’re not rolling as many over or they’re waiting still,
I feel like today was their Hail Mary. Tank the stock and try to bleed it out via stop losses during the week in which we expected roll overs and highs. MSM went CRAZY today shilling out articles saying retail got bored (knowing full well the stock went down during after hours and that it couldn’t have possibly been retail). This was as coordinated as it could’ve possibly been from all angles.
But it didn’t work. We closed green. We recovered in a single day.
I’m not sure they can survive a margin call with the next run up. Their only hope was to have it drop lower.
I honestly think they rolled over a small fraction of futures when it ran to $200 as a test and realized that if they finished the process it’d be over. This was the backup. It didn’t work.
It’s over for them. I hope. Not financial advice and also literally and truly don’t know what I’m talking about.
I still expect fuckery tomorrow, and I’ll expect it every day afterward until they’re liquidated and in jail. They will fight til their last breath
Absolute facts. And that’s why gamers always win. Expect the worst and persevere.
This, forreal. Never assume they're out of ammo, or don't have any more dastardly tricks to play. The day they're done manipulating the market is the day they get liquidated.
*rubs hands together*
Rubs tits together
Especially with earnings on tap and in the media’s spotlight— of course they would want to control the narrative and suppress FOMO.
Gotta stick on the marathon just like DFV implied with his appearance lads.
never even considered it, was planing on just buying more and holding
Gherkinit went over this pretty well on his stream earlier today. Hope somebody clipped it
Do you remember about where in the day's stream it was?
Before 10am PST if I had to guess. I’m sorry I don’t remember more specific
Mmm tasty rolls.
Keep rollsin rollsin rollsin hodl, keep rollsin rollsin rollsin gme
It's the Mayo Starfish and the Dark Pool Flavored Water
I did all for the tendies! Yeah! The tendies! C’mon!
First I roll then I sin
Criand why the 17th? Would be great if you could point out why . I am getting confused with the 63 or 69 day cycles now
That's different. The futures roll date is today. How many naked shorts are there? Nobody knows. The last 2 cycles 3/10 and 6/10 the price ripped. After research, the futures can be rolled from the roll date on up to the expiration date. Expiry date is the 17th. Hope this helps. Consider, if they don't take care of it soon (before expiry) then call options could load up heavily. My opinion is that they try to do the majority tomorrow and the rest start of the week in order to avoid gamma ramp Armageddon. Don't forget about crime though. These mf'ers are trapped. Expect fuckery.
And I owe all of it to Gherkinit!
I HAD YOU PEGGED AS A PICKLE FROM FAR AWAY. THE SMELL OF VINEGAR AND WINNING GAVE IT OFF.
U said pegged and pickle.....
How many pickles can gherkinit peg if u/gherkinit could peg pickles?
6.9 or 17
How about 7 4 1?
I like it!
Got it, thanks!
He answered here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pl3v4h/comment/hc7pb7p/
It looks like people will typically roll futures by the "roll date" which was March 11, June 10, September 9. This is to avoid leaving your swaps unhedged during the volatility around actual expirations where it would be even harder to hedge. The actual expirations being March 19, June 18, September 17.
So it's very possible that they're at a point where rolling them would leave them too unhedged even early on. This could be true from what we saw August 24 when things absolutely ripped upward on minimal volume.
But if they wait until the last minute (September 17) it's going to get even worse for their hedge risk once they finally roll. Fingers crossed that they're pinned and it's going to absolutely rip upwards by EoM.
No credit to the person you got this from...?
Just gonna leave this here...
Original comment from one of u/gherkinit's "quants" from his stream found the pertinent information in case anyone wants to see what the deal with the 9st vs the 17nd of Septembrrrr is all about.
I remember u/criand's DD looking at the 9th as the peak of the cycle, and there's some confusion about how long they can hold off settling up the cycle in the DD that u/Mychelly360 uncovered and shared with u/gherkinit.
**This explains the action today and last week in my book:**
They are waiting as much as possible to cover the cycle and were ::tinfoil hat on:: using the earnings hype/fud alongside the slightly inaccurate assessment of the cycle from Criand's DD (ape understanding) to hopefully kill our spirits and get us to sell... LOL
# No Cell No Sell bitches...
You know the game by now, so pay me and kindly fuck off so we can restore the integrity of the US Financial System.
Agree with your take here.
Also, wasn't aware that the OP of the info re: the 17th was not only one of gherk's quants but also who responded to criand, so I can see how that lead to confusion.
Yeah, I didn't know about gherk finding it and saw nothing in the hot section saying anything about the last date being the expiration. Gherks boys found it first, I found it a little later and more recently found supporting text covering regulations. Bottom of page 61,
gherks boys were the winner on this information find, but I got your back if you want to see it in a pdf covering regulations !
Ah I see. Sorry, the timeline is a little hard to follow!
Yeah. I woulda just posted, but not enough karma for that.
Good the info is out
Both are winners! Thanks to ALL that brought this to Our simple brains. I have a bump but it’s from being jacked!
Quant is a stretch. praise vwap
Well, I didn't know that lol If you read my comment history from this evening, I've learned that, but it was confusing as someone who doesn't follow extensively.
L'mayo, you bet; it's funny to see it used unironically though. They're smarter than me so we can still call them quants if u want 🍻
I’m retarded as fuck, if someone says they’re a quant at first I’m like ok they’re a quant haha
Gherk and his boys found it first.
I found it independently (didnt see the edit in his TA) and also found supporting text.
So gherks boys get the credit.
Heres the pdf and the relevant text is near the bottom of page 61
Gherk and his boys and girls and Dans.
awesome find, more data is good for apes.
personally IDGAF who found it :D
This thread is the Avengers of Superstonk.
Good DD gherk, credit where credit is due
This is information I provided in a futures roll post multiple weeks ago, where futures are rolled by the "roll date".
And that by rolling the futures their underlying swaps can become unhedged. That's all information I provided weeks ago, and was credited in the original post.
However, I figured that they must be rolled by the "roll date". Which was wrong. It wasn't until today that people were replying to me stating that it was just convention. I figure the title serves that purpose crediting the multiple apes that pointed it out.
This was originally a shitpost. Someone asked for clarification and I gave them information from both my original post + the new info that rolls can be extended until expirations. I apologize that I didn't know you were the original source for rolls being extended a few days.
The people who replied to you might heard it in Gherks stream, just sayin, It was like 1500 listning in when he and one of his pigeonwhale came up with this theory earlier today. Whatever this is great fooocking news
The theory of everything jacked my tits so fucking hard
Who the fuck is trying to create drama. Chill out guys. Criand isn’t stealing DD. This is the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard. True apes aren’t feeding into this.
I don't think anybody is intentionally trying to fan the flames, so to speak. Criand made a post, Gherk replied. It's natural there will be disagreements. This is a community of individuals, after all. For what it's worth, I think both of these dudes are incredible members of the community that have helped all of us grow wrinkles.
Facts but anything positive about Criand is getting downvoted very quickly, calling him momoney and shit like that. Warden. Tf is wrong with these people
Yeah, there are definitely a few comments that are either unnecessary or totally reactionary (especially the Warden one). Still, I think the best thing to do is just up/downvote based on content. I have faith that the average ape in here knows what counts as good discourse, and what counts as inflammatory shit-talking.
❤️❤️ much love ape u right
I second this notion, and his meme here does say "apes tell" meaning someone other than himself. Yes maybe a mention to gherk would have been nice, but I don't see this as him trying to take credit for someone else's work.
For realz. So dumb. It would just figure. We’ve lost one after another great DD writer to bull shit non existent drama like this.
Wtf. Gherk called this at like 10am.
The quants. Nobody ever credits the quants…
Or the dans...
as goes the life of a quant. You get something right, nobody gives a shit. Your wrong one time and all of sudden your the witch on the stake they are trying to burn.
Standard Rims Gherk
We Love Pickle!
and like..... 10 hours late.
edit: that being said, we're all in this together, loose lips sink ships and eat chips with dip. Buy Hodl, Never Sodl
Gherk you will be rewarded because the only Karma that matters is the Karma bestowed upon thee by lady VWAP.
Her wrath to smite thee nefarious ones is also almighty
Did you post this info here? If so I and a bunch of others missed it
Ape no fight ape
If you both know that 2+2=fish, and came to the same conclusion, why fight over who figured it out first?
He posted it after I told him, see my or his post history where I tell him and then he goes and spreads it like his own.
I didn't know your group found it earlier in the day. But yeah I also independently found a pdf that confirms it as well. This is the relevant text.
On U.S. futures markets, the "settlement period should properly
be described as the life of the contract. Only open positions that
have not been offset when the contract expires need to be settled by
See my post history, or criands post history to see that he started saying it after I found it lol. Like me he probably didnt notice it in your edited TA for the day. I didn't know until I saw people mention that your group found it before me by a couple hours.
The pdf is also somewhere in my post history, or maybe can Google the copy pasta I made from the PDF.
Ngl no matter where criand "found the info" or.. From who... Not cool. All for dumb internet points.
Youre the 🐐, gherk. Love following the TA cus I can't do it myself lol.
Why does gherk always autocorrect to cheek lol. So annoying.
Fuckin great 🤣. Praise VWAP
If one's tits aren't jacked after reading this post I don't know what could possibly jack them.
My tits are so jacked, they’re jilled.
This is great , thank you for the explanation. One of these days you need to send us a screenshot of your notification badges because you must have thousands of messages every day! Stay safe Pomeranian!
There’s all kind of rolls, let’s see you have:
- Hawaiian rolls
- Sweet rolls
- Butter rolls
- Barrel rolls
- Chocolate rolls
- Croissant rolls
Dice rolls, baby
Futures contracts can be rolled until 5p of the date of expiration. The ROLL column here states that after the date at 5p Central Time, they can only be rolled to the next quarter or later. So yes, they can be rolled until 09/17 5p CT.
Future rolls could lead to Future Islands for apes.
Seasons Change Hedgies!
But wasn't the end of the roll period as per your last theory Sept 9th?
Yes, I figured that was the last date too.
But that's more of convention to roll by those "roll dates" to avoid the volatility of the upcoming expirations. They actually have up until the 17th to roll.
Glad I could point out about offsetting after roll date.
Heres more confirmation. Pdf covering regulations and speaks about settlement.
Here is the relevant text.
On U.S. futures markets, the settlement period should properly
be described as the life of the contract. Only open positions that
have not been offset when the contract expires need to be settled by delivery.
It's a paper from a college and 1985. However if you think they are now less stringent when it comes to settlement for big players, I got a bridge to sell you.
Thx for clarifying, I had already read your response below that's why I edited. Godspeed you pom, [keep rollin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYnFIRc0k6E).
I'm more of a Martin's Potato Rolls kinda guy.
So wait, rolling the futures contracts means continuing hiding FTDs or shorts? So if they don't roll them then there will be a price spike up?
If it ain't the Pillsbury Doughboy himself!
You know what, everytime I see your username lately I think of this scene for some reason. I made this to try to represent it (I'm no video editing expert obviously). Figured I should try to make it since you threw in the Orc meme!
Haha! I absolutely love LoTR thank you for the laugh :)
u/criand you see this?
u/kingknowlian you see this? 🤣
damn bro. 2 billy a share or bust
Gets top comment on his own post.
It's convention that they roll by the "roll date" of September 9th. But, they technically can roll at any date before expirations - which is September 17th.
Now the question is if they're actually doing that or not. Holding it to the last minute.
Hey pom pom , whats the marge call price these day according to your rough calculations.?
I'm really not sure. I'd guess it's still around the $350 price point, but can't figure out a good method to even calculate that.
Maybe based on average retail cost basis of ~$157 (per Webull) and assuming the shares are synthetic so paired with a short, and with 100% margin requirements, leaves $157*2 = $314
Holy shit, $314 bucks, that's pi, we have come full circle!!! A SIGN!!!!! A SIMULNATION CANFIRMD!!!
If you're margin calling Kenny you need to factor in the cost of a jar of mayo, you know he's spent that as well.
(UK ape, no idea of global mayo cost variations, dollar conversion hypothecated)
$5.39 seems high for Mayo. Just saw a post earlier that said if you take away beef, pork, and poultry that food prices are rising at normal levels.
Transitory inflation 😉
Dude literally said it the high inflation only applies to meats. Which if true means PUTS on Arby’s I guess cuz…
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
I imagine he buys large jars and fiends on them
I heard he fills up suppository caps with it too.
I mean the failed margin call into forced liquidation doesnt depend on their short size alone, also how many assets they got to sell for satisfying margin. Actually impossible to calculate, but they seem really scared of 350 and above
I'd factor in the leverage Kenny has on literally everyone else's business models surrounding himself. I suspect shorts are being encouraged at a discount right now. Id *4 the price you got tbh
Icc-014 did start giving out discounts on Credit default index swaptions as of June 1, which could be playing a role here. Giving everyone cheaper exposure to fuck with prices but creating a larger bag. :/
So further dropping the price in the short term but increasing rocket long term?
Who will be left holding the big bag of radioactive waste once the dancing chair game stops the music?
Tune in every day to maybe find out
Might quadruple witching day falling on the 17th add to the volatility if they wait until the last minute? ie. more tricky to keep it below an estimated margin call territory of $314 based on your back-of-napkin maffs?
Might them waiting be more advantageous to retail?
Damn makes me feel bad with my 181 avg😳
That doesn’t matter because this isn’t an ordinary stock. Everything under thousands is a discount.
pom pom 🤣
I’ve been curious what your take on this action, or lack of it, has been this week. Feels like they are waiting as long as possible. We’ll know soon.
I'm sure the plan is to tell motley fool and pals to talk about how gme always drops on earnings. Use a tiny amount of shares to drop the price massively after hours on the day of earnings. Take all the shares you can get from those betraying everyone else and selfishly trying to reduce cost avg.
Then no one actually sold and they still want to get some rollovers done by the 9/9 date so we get some movement upward today back to earnings day close. Friday they do the usual tiny volume and drain the price slowly downward.
They're making sure people can't consistently make bank on options by knowing their plan. It was extremely obvious this time that we knew what dates matched up with previous price action cycles. So circumvent expectations, instill fear based on past experiences where the stock drops after earnings all to make sure they get as many shares as possible. To me, it's bullish because they need to scrounge up as many shares as possible from paper hands likely because they're worried of how fast it will move due to the buy pressure and low liquidity. They need more time to manage everything.
And this time there was no share offering during the earnings call to help alleviate buying PRESSURE 👀
smoothie here, what are future rolls?
Futures are another contract, similar to options, that have an expiration date.
If you do not wish to close your futures contracts upon expiration, you can roll them to a later date. Essentially extending your initial contract.
So in January if I opened a future expiring in March, I can decide to roll it to June. And then once June comes around I can decide to roll it to September. And so forth.
I'm convinced finance is basically gambling.
Always has been
Smooth brain here, why would rolling the futures cause the price to go up? Is it not just more can kicking?
In theory they're used to hedge against their swap positions. Either through actual shares futures or through LIBOR (rate) futures. But the loss of those futures would cause the swaps to be unhedged, driving buy-ins.
This discusses how futures can be used to hedge swap positions. And once the futures are gone, the underlying swap becomes extremely difficult to hedge against:
So it's like a lose now, or lose later scenario for hedgies.
_insert oNe mOrE dAy speech_
Lose now AND lose later, actually.
Isn’t this the first cycle where NSCC 2021 02 is active? Meaning maybe they can’t roll because the unhedged position would increase risk by such a degree, they wouldn’t be able to survive the SLD requirements
Yessir NSCC-002 was put into effect at the end of June. So this will be the first cycle with it in play.
So what happens if they don’t roll the futures? Is that unhedged position too great to carry and they essentially force the swaps to close?
That's what I'm thinking, yeah. The price surges are always the swap holders hedging with buy-ins. Not retail or institutions.
If you owe the bank 100$ then you're in trouble
If you owe all the banks 1/4 the US economy then the bank is in trouble *taps head*
Is there a way to know when/if these futures have been rolled? (Other than waiting for the expiration date and seeing if price blows up or not)
u/Criand So does the change from LIBOR to SOFR rates on [December 31st](https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/financial-services/regulatory-services/libor-reference-rate-reform/sofr-transition.html) pose a risk to this strategy?
Last time a week before the future rollover period they left it unhedged. This caused the massive spike. This time they did not. Could it be that they didn't bother this time because it would be too difficult to cover?
Doing anything costs money, and rolling futures leaves a small moment of weakness where price suppression fails, afaik
So then what leads to the price increase?
Sorry, super smooth here.
Hey watch the first 2 min and 30 seconds. Does that confirm that the roll doesn’t need to be done until the expiration date? Also kinda seems like there might be some good information in these videos
Or I might just be too dumb to understand anything other than buy and hold.
And how much does that cost them to roll these cheat codes?
I can't explain it at all because im smooth as well, but when i read Criand's latest DD i did understand a good amount of it. I suggest you go read it! It's one of the most interesting DD i've read in a while :)
Easy, those are leftover rolls sent to the future in a DeLorean to be consumed by future apes
smoothest of smoothbrain question here, if a T+ thing were to happen again and we see no significant price movement even up to end of the month, what would be your first guess to why?
I think they know if they start to roll the price goes straight to the danger zone. I figured they were going to wait to the last possible minute and just try to cram it all in at once, like a student frantically writing answers during the last minute of a test.
My question is if you know, what happens if they don't/refuse to settle by the end of the period? I doubt the other end of the swaps will be too happy, I wonder what the settlement is like, or if they treat it just like a margin call?
>figured they were going to wait to the last possible minute
Feels like that has been their gameplan over the course of this whole GME saga don't you think? They pump the fud campaign, pump the different stocks as much as they can before they're forced to make a move. I still think they're arrogant and still don't respect our diamond hands. They have to believe they can get us to sell or else why would they still continue this game just to delay the inevitable.
One more day Griffin.
Is it one thing financial institutions actually respect and follow then it is written contracts. Straight to jail otherwise
Hey Pommy, since each month rollover the price has increased larger each time. In theory, would this time we reach a higher price than it was in June (302 i believe). Also in theory, this would possibly start the margin calls (saying GME goes to 350)? Just corresponding to the month rollovers
Possibly. I was thinking that the Deep OTM Puts (DOOMPs) we saw were being used to hedge against their swap positions. Since they no longer have a majority of them (an additional 400k expired July 16th) that could make things more explosive due to the swaps being more exposed.
It could get spicy! Crossing fingers it will be explosive this time around. If not, we all just learn to not be discouraged as these SHF have numerous ways to manipulate the market and we go back to the drawing board to see what they might have done.
Criand is going to go down in history. I almost hope we never find out who you really are.
You’re the closest person to Batman that I think I’ll ever know of in real life!
I will salute every pomeranian in the hope I one day can pay respect to the real one
Dude Nobody’s Aware I’m Ryan Cohen
It would be absolutely hysterical if you really were and not a single soul believed you
Brother, we're ALL Ryan Cohen up in this bitch
I agree! 👏🏻👏🏻
Ok i think this makes sense, but can anyone smoothen this out for me?
AFAIK we were expecting the push upwards to be today bc historically they’ve done it a week out from future’s expiration? But because they technically have UNTIL expiration to roll, they could start anytime between now and the 17th?
That seems to make sense to me, but how do we account for the relatively larger volume today? And at the time of writing we’re almost at 0% on the day which was a 10% gain from this morning’s low. Is there a possibility that they’ve already started the roll and just needed to knock it down first before buying?
Any help is appreciated guys, trying to wrap my head around this stuff takes a minute for us smoothies.
IMO they knocked the price down to have a little bit of room. Now, i don't know if the 10% we got today is from retail buying the fire sale or them starting the rolls (probably both)
Probs both. They had the MSM FUD team on full blast this morning. They thought we would abandon ship. Fools.
Their first mistake was thinking we care about what msm says. Most of us don’t even watch tv.
They are desperately trying to keep the boomers that watch TV off this stock as well.
If boomers join in the fukkening comes quicker
Jokes on them, I already got some boomers on board and got some others who are already asking me questions.
They keep overplaying their TV and e-newspapers hands and all it is doing is proving me right on these boomer's eyes. One day MSM will blame us for them having no credibility;
MSM: "You turned them away from me!"
Apes: "You did that yourself."
Since we dipped 10%, SSR got triggered, which prevents shorting on the down tick. If no one is selling, then you can only short on up tick, so theoretically, price should only be going up if there are no paper hands that sell via market.
For people that don't understand the above, with SSR you can only sell stock you _own_, not stock you _borrow_. Because that's what shorting is.
Will there be honey butter served with these rolls?
Whatever happened with the future rolls?
I came to say the same
Thank you Criand for all that you do!
You are a great Pomeranian!
I knew all those years of hoarding sweet rolls in Skyrim would come in handy.
Can they get all the rollovers taken care of in just one trading day? Or even 2?
So they used the popularization of 9/9 as tendie day, fear and conditioning of earnings drop, and their own hope of another share offering to change the convention and wait longer. Given the higher volume today and price increase I think it's safe to say they've bought some shares but just enough to make us still red on the day.
Given this, I'd expect a typical Friday with low volume and the price drifting to 190-195. Then they have the full week to actually buy shares, a lot of which taking place earlier in the week as is tradition due to options. I don't know how much we currently believe they have left to cover on these contracts but depending on the volume from that, the gamma ramp may still take us deep into 200s.
All the articles crying about how gme always goes down esp motley fool sort of spilled the beans that we wouldn't drop the same way this time.
We ended green, damnit!
I swear when this is all over with I might just adopt a Pomeranian
Praise be /u/GherkinIt and Lady VWAP in all her glory
Whale teeth for MOASS
Yo Criand appreciate you dawg
You may have been early, but you won't be wrong.
Did someone say *Kings Hawaiian Rolls?*
Yahoo reporting syntethic float close to estimated rollover is fishy imo. Thoughts? 190m estimated rollover, 173m syntethics
Were they taken back off the menu? I’m hungry.
I’m a simple man, I see a pomeraniape, I upvote a pomeraniape.
Hedgies done F’d up, they should’ve shorted Pomeranians.