Jerkin' it with Gherkinit S8E6 Live Charting and TA for 9/15/21
By - gherkinit
So today we go up, down or side ways! Enjoy the ride no matter what. Eventually 🚀🚀🚀🚀
It's just another day until it isn't. 🌙 soon
One more day closer to the MOASS
See you there!
GUYS THIS IS THE ONLY RIGHT ANSWER
Calls on sideways.
BEST WAY UP IS SIDEWAYS OR DOWN....
KEEP THEM TITTIES JACKED
Gherk how do you know the expiration was the 10th and not the 17th? Wouldn’t they want to make it relatively standard and have it expire with other contracts
Let us know if you get an answer
I got you
So the 17th theory has been debunked? All that arguing over who’s idea it was all for nothing lol
Has until the 21st or 22nd to play out
@u/Gherkinit Regarding the futures contracts, hey does this mean they did cover or did not cover & are heading into margin call territory?
If they did cover and we only moved up $20 has to be a bad sign
As always, thank you!
Wasn’t this week suppose to have a ton of volume?
Not necessarily if they let the futures expire without rolling then next week.
What better day than today? Lfggggg 🚀🚀🚀🚀
I buy a futures contract. I'm on the losing end by expiry. I now want to rollover the contract.
At this point, am I purchasing a new contract and closing the previous by purchasing the underlying asset? Or am I now giving you your profit in cash, never buying the security, and keeping the same bet rolling? This would prevent the volume from the original contract from hitting the exchange in my mind so this is where the disconnect is for me.
Edit - not suggesting anyone buy futures, this is a question about rollovers.
From the little diligence I've done there's a couple types of futures, one being for commodities and one for securities.
Securities futures tend to be cash settlement which means they pay up in cash whereas commodities settle in physical delivery. Now what does cash settlement mean for a security that is defined by a price? I'm not sure. Maybe even cash settlement means the underlying gets purchased.. again I don't know. But physical delivery settlement seems to mean literal physical delivery as in it would be printed paper shares if used with a stock.
I asked this in the weekly TA prediction thread but can you clarify how rolling the type of futures contract assumed in this case would work? And when it is rolled, do they not have leeway to buy multiple contracts of different volumes with different expiry dates so the entire volume isn't rolled forward to the same date in order to avoid the large run ups of Feb and June?
Might this explain the past couple of weeks and suggest that this expiry had a lower volume attributed to it if we don't see this roll over in the next couple days? I mean we DID have a big run up from the 150's to almost $230 with a sudden burst of volume. That wasn't nothing.
The function of security futures would be to hedge against the short swap exposure. Ideally, a SHF with a short return swap will buy a futures contract that anchors a price below the previous rollover's strike as a hedge. This ensures that the counterparty on the futures provides the cash that is then owed to the SHF, who then owes a mark-to-market return on the short return swap. The counterparty on the short return swap are the prime brokers and their banks.
This would explain the wedge pattern we see on the charts. Higher lows and lower highs, with peaks on futures rollover dates. If literally nothing happens anywhere, the stock would theoretically be expected to trade flat at the midpoint of the wedge. But we live in a world where shit is always happening everywhere, so as long holders, we are exposed to catalysts. Both negative and positive.
The biggest one IMO is phase 5 of the UMR. I think this is the reason why a lot of the swap exposure is being peicemealed at <$8bn notional offshore, the reason why we're seeing all these netting accounts being set up under prime brokers banks, the reason why CFTC released a no-action letter specifically regarding swaps, and the reason why we're seeing a "calm before the storm" being painted on the charts.
Phase 5 UMR states for all entities >$50B in notional exposure, for any new swaps entered into past September 1 or any new swap novations (adding a new counterparty) will be subject to posting initial margin. Maybe the netting account and exposure offshoring fuckery is successful, maybe its not. Maybe FINRA's CAT is able to trace back transaction data to the parent, maybe it won't. But all of this points to a "calm before the storm" situation.
So don't be disappointed if we stay flat past the rollover date. It doesn't change the thesis. Don't be disappointed if we don't see volume and volatility spikes. Catalysts are a dime a dozen, especially between what GME is cooking up with regards to an NFT, this whole Evergrande situation, DRS via computershare, etc. Buy, HODL, register, stay zen and just don't fucking dance.
Read your reply three times, appreciate it.
But my question still is - once a futures contract is purchased does the underlying asset *need* to be purchased? Does rollover just mean overlapping contracts, with the first in line *needing* to be closed by purchasing the security?
Or is it a contract for difference, where if I owe you $40/share I can opt to not buy the security, just give you the balance in cash and we call it all good?
No, like the guy above said, equities futures are usually cash settled.
Under swaps, the only person that "needs" to purchase a share is the counterparty bank that has shorted the stock to provide the SHF the return profile.
It could be that the banks are managing their exposure by purchasing the stock to close out a small portion of their swaps, with the cash the SHF owes to the bank, with the cash that the futures counterparty owes to the SHF.
So yes, but it's an indirect process.
One last question - when you say novational value are you talking about margin put up that the leverage is based on?
Edit - Extra TY
No worries :)
Novation is the replacing of one swap counterparty with another. So if a bank wants to sell its short return swap to another bank while keeping the SHF the same, or if a SHF wants to sell its return entitlement to another SHF while keeping the bank the same, that counts as a "trade lifecycle event" and will require initial margin.
Margin maintenance was always dependent on the ability to deliver the variation component (mark-to-market / accumulated depreciation) of the swap exposure, which is based on margin collateral. Now, for the first time ever under Phase 5 UMR, initial margin (theoretical losses) will be required.
Not too sure what that would entail, since theoretical losses on a short position is infinite. But I would imagine that it would be capped at some arbitrary multiplier of the notional value of the swap.
Lol man ty yes I was talking about notional not novation. I misquoted you.
Haha yeah I was confused too but that last sentence covers it.
I think cash settlement means just that. I lose the bet and pay you, if I don't want to buy the underlying asset I don't have to, because you have been made whole by the settlement. I don't buy bc I do not want the price to spike.
If so its gotta be expensive right? So they likely took a massive financial hit, but now we wont get the cycles right? sucks
My bread and butter pickle!
MOA $$ Wednesday
Confirmation bias I need...Thanks Gherk for all hard work you do to teach apes about infinity ;-)
Gherk can we talk about our feelings today on your stream!?
Thanks for the daily update .
Let's start with your dreams.
Should I lay down!?
Dibbs on top!
I'm always bottom.
Question bout the swap rollover volume...could they have closed some of them with the money made from the crypto dump last week?
I also have this question
Jacqued for today, tomorrow and the next!
Keep calm and hodlfast
Thx Gherk! See ya over in the stream! LFG!
The pickle is in the building! 🚀
Ok... soooo.... buy and hodl... got it👀. Carry on wayward son🔥💎🚀🌙
Smooth brain here, so forgive my terminology.
If they don’t cover their futures what happens? Is it just like the FTDs where they just keep kicking the can? Or is it a more set in stone thing that they just can’t avoid?
You can't ftd on a futures contract.
The question is at expiry are they forced to buy the underlying asset and start a new contract, or do they just settle in cash on the difference and never buy the security at that time, keeping the same bet going.
I've asked this like four times in the last day and no one can answer.
I feel like this would be the place to get it answered. Hopefully when gherk makes his rounds later he sees this.
Does he even know?
I think he said in his after market summary that he’s looking into it
My guess is they'll do a roll over just before expiration. If they let it expire, I believe they are obligated to buy it.
Or they could just give the issuer the cash difference and never buy the security, this is the heart of my question.
They absolutely could, both are an option for them.
They sent them to Brazil 😂
Honestly, it just means a lot that you like me more than Dr. K
Doin it and doin it and doin it well, u/gherkinit at a 🌮🔔
Does anyone know if they have t+ days to buy the futures contracts in case they don’t Roll them on the 17th?
The futures expiration day is when a futures contract will cease to exist. That is every 3rd Friday of the month which will September 17th. Holding a contract past this expiration date will trigger obligations for you to purchase the underlying asset. ... Futures do not. Long or short the futures contract into expiry you will be exercised.
To da moon
Love you Gherkinit. I may or may not ghaherkin it myself. Gherk that pickle.
how long has iborrow had a 0.5% fee for borrowing? havent been following it closely over the summer
Thanks for your continued efforts regarding the trading/settle/expiry I look forward to your update on the subject tomorrow. Save us Pickleman
Fucking legend. Thank you man
Morning, Gherk! 3... 2... 1... Blow?
Thx gherk. I appreciate u
Lezzzzzzzzzzz gooooooooooooooo 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Hey, look at this and tell me if it may have an effect on tomorrow's markets. Some big meeting in Canberra today involving ministers, who were given exemptions to cross boarders, running up to the US making a huge announcement tomorrow.... https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7432491/secret-canberra-meeting-on-hot-issue/
GME is in a perfect position to rocket upwards 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Sure seems like they want it below $200 really bad.
Up with the pickles! <3
Looking at the small gap of 190.5-191.6 is this insignificant or you think a small push back down to fill? This gap only filled about half way on Monday.
My guess is the last 15 minutes.
Thanks for everything!
Thank you mr pickle I have learned a lot from your stream.
LESSSGOOO. Hope your back is better tomorrow Gherk.
My daily dose of sanity, thanks Gherk for all that you do for us.
Jerk the gerk 💦
You the best at what you do gherk. Praise VWAP!
I like the cut of your cornichons, pickle man!
Today is a good day for MOASS! LFG!!!
#Summon the 🐦 🐳! Coooo!
You think that this trading day will end in red?
Something tells me a snooping tiny rat of the canine variety is about to write a DD about edit 4 😂
I like gaps
We're t there millions of fidelity shares the other day and now it's under 1 mil? I'll jack my tits a little.
Still jacked for violent upside potential
T +2, +6, +21, +35
I think all could be in play not just t+2
Just T+2 or 3 depends on the expiration date. Different types of futures have different final trading days.
Where volume tho
#Fk u Daytraturds Edit: Of GME!
❤👏😎 the rest of you braniac daytraders!
Nobody is day trading GME.
Hey Gherk. Appreciate what you do. Spent a few days watching your stream whenever I've been off work.
God bless your patience watching sideways trading lol
Good job we're all so jacked off our tits all the time eh...
Gherk analysis when the volume sucks:
\- "Volume sucks"
Come back tomorrow for more news....