Ump Scorecard: World Series Game 1 (Chris Conroy)

Ump Scorecard: World Series Game 1 (Chris Conroy)


Better accuracy than I was expecting and worse net favor than I was expecting


That’s what happens when you miss ball fours and strike threes primarily And essentially only in one teams favor.


I got in a big pissing match on Twitter about the Diaz call in game 4 on this. Missing calls that end AB’s (or should have ended an AB) is a lot different than missing calls on a 2-1 count.


yeah anyone trying to say some random AB going up 2-2 on a bad call is the same as that laz diaz call that kept the astros in an inning where they would up scoring like 7 runs is out of their gourd.


Also turning a strikeout into a walk in the bottom of the 9th is a very high impact call in terms of win probability. It ended up not mattering, but I imagine that one call makes up a big chunk of the run differential.


Win probability isn't the same thing as run expectancy. Yes, turning a strikeout into a walk (or a walk into a strikeout) has a big impact on your likelihood of scoring a run, but the inning doesn't matter. For the purposes of this graphic, a run is a run, no matter when it occurs.


the missed ball 1 to Riley is massive as well, bases were loaded there and the AB goes vastly different if he correctly goes up 1-0 vs down 0-1


Also, he knew he had to swing at pitches near there because, even though they couldn’t be hit, they would be called strikes.


there's probably a list somewhere of the run probability difference in literally every count and out and runner situation.


“The Numbers Game” by Alan Schwarz had a good discussion on the development of run expectancy. Would highly recommend if you’re into stats.


https://community.fangraphs.com/the-effect-of-umpires-on-baseball-umpire-runs-created-urc/ There is! It's in this article by the guy who makes these scorecards. His entire methodology is here incl the run expectancy table


Did this umpire have NBA JAM "KEEP GAME CLOSE MODE" turned on?


Nothing but blue shells and lighting bolts for the team behind, and banana peels for the team in front.


Jokes on them, I'm a banana peel sniper.


Wait, I thought this was always turned on


The crazy thing is the strike zone was tight as fuck to start the game and then opened up as the game went on, usually it’s the opposite, innit?


Yea to me it all Started with Duvalls at bat....he called 2 straight balls strikes and then the very next hitter called it a ball lol.


Saw a meme where they had the strike zone in the shape of Texas for Astros pitchers and it’s not that different.


Can we relocate to Anchorage briefly on paper so we can get that Alaska strike zone tonight?


That's a Panhandle Strike right there! ... and another one way off in the Aleutians! Strike Two! And Strike Three is right at the Point Barrow mark of the zone


Exactly. I get most folks that look at it and think, ‘better than I would have thought’. I think that it’s because he had a weirdly consistent zone on what he called balls/strikes and if you removed the teams impacted, we’d perceive this as an ok game. It’s because it was so lopsided in favor of Houston that makes this frustrating and close to unacceptable.


I think this highlights the the problems with using run expectancy as the metric. Overall I think the ump was pretty good, it's just that the handful of calls he missed were in high leverage situations. A huge chunk of this number is probably just a result of the 3-2 call in the 9th. Looking up the table on [Fangraphs](https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/) nobody on 1 out has an RE of 0.243, while runner on 1st 0 out has an RE of 0.831. So a full third of the RE difference on this scorecard is from that single call alone.


He doesn't use re24 for this, fwiw. Here's his article where he goes into his methodology and creates re288 https://community.fangraphs.com/the-effect-of-umpires-on-baseball-umpire-runs-created-urc/


+.81 for HOU -.81 for ATL Perfectly balanced, as all things…. Wait a minute.


Wait… this isn’t the r/accounting subreddit??? Looks like a perfectly balanced journal entry to me


Debit Braves, Credit Astros


Fuck, I can’t escape my classes anywhere can I?


You can run all you want, the accounting still comes for you all the same


Was living off the high of the Braves win only to be reminded of my exam yesterday…


I was depressed about the Astros game then I remembered my exam tomorrow….


Not enough "depreciate land" jokes to be r/accounting


Or black tar heroin


Debit: Dodger Stadium Credit: Minority Families who lived there


+1.62 runs for HOU good lord


That’s one of the worst I’ve ever seen. He was giving Odorizzi that outside strike all game.


he was giving houston a few inches off the outside corner and low.


Not excusing the ump, but do you think it has anything to do with d'Arnaud's framing?


I mean it's possible, but this year statcast has d'arnaud as pretty much a neutral framer (1 extra run on strikes over the course of the year), just slightly better than HOU's Maldonado


lol, I love the depths you can go into with baseball analytics.


I love it and hate it at the same time because now a sizable portion of baseball discourse happens with all the soul and magic of a Deloitte slide deck


> all the soul and magic of a Deloitte slide deck Let's be real, most of these conversations are KPMG *at best.*


TDA ranks about the same in framing as Will Smith and Moldonado. Granted, his thumb is jacked and is definitely doing some funky sweeping action but this is odd.


Yeah you can tell dArnaud is not feeling well.


I'm surprised he didn't have more passed balls with that weird sweep he was doing.


It's almost like he's trying to imitate that quick, jabbing sweep that Flowers used to great effect, but isn't quite getting it.


no I don’t because the framing stats I’ve looked at has maldonado ranked around 30th and travis around 18-23ish. so if anything they would be around even.


It absolutely does. Look at the walk in the bottom of the 9th where Smith absolutely painted the corner with a perfect pitch and didn't get the call - [d'Arnaud was set up way inside](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/573708957877534730/902773971462807552/PXL_20211027_042022613.jpg) but the pitch [pulled his glove down and away,](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/573708957877534730/902774049300697088/PXL_20211027_042038290.jpg) you can see him stretching over to get it, so even though it was clearly a strike to us the fact that Smith missed his spot and Travis had to reach for it is gonna hurt them. The ump sees it and thinks he missed his spot badly and assumes it's outside. Of course there were other calls that were just blatantly wrong, that's undeniable. But framing absolutely has something to do with it on some of the calls.


Why does an umpire need to rely on a catcher to help him call a game tho?


This is why we need hawkeye system in place for at least balls and strikes


Pitch framing, and that #1 was Smith missing the intended target, which we all know will result in the ump not calling it the vast majority of the time. We have played teams with catchers that do much better than TDA at framing. Milwaukee and Los Angeles in particular. Houston was worse during the regular season but that doesn’t mean that Moldonado can’t have the pitch framing game of his life in WS game 1. In any event would be interesting if someone came up with a game by game pitch framing scorecard for catchers to go alongside this.


I have less problem (not NO problem) with what they didnt call a strike when we were pitching, than the VERY generous zone that seemed to be given when we were hitting. Just call it both ways... really thats all I ask... if you suck and have a weird zone... have the same weird strikezone for both teams.


Generally, I would say no, not really. But yesterday I think it was a bigger factor. His glove felt like it was sweeping across the plate catching the pitch almost every other pitch. That’s always going to be tough for the umps to see.


Yeah, it's pretty obvious that Conroy was seeing our pitches differently throughout the game, and d'Arnaud was the only constant. Again, not excusing Conroy or blaming d'Arnaud, just one variable to consider.


This is something no one ever considers. It's generally accepted that framing is a real thing that matters but everyone always assumes a bias on these scorecards is somehow intentional and not a product of framing.




Noting this for an off-season project unless someone gets to it first.


That would be really interesting data if you undertook that!


I consider framing, always. I also consider that, no matter how well you frame a pitch, if it's 2 inches low and 3 inches off the outside of the plate, and gets called a strike, the ump fucking sucks. I don't care if the catcher closed his eyes and didn't move his glove an eyelash -- the calls the Astros were getting last night were fucking awful.


If it's anything like the other sports refs/umps tend to favor the home team.


That full count strike called a ball in the bottom of the 9th was absolutely because of framing. It was an easy strike but d'Arnaud basically lunged at it.


I think those top two missed calls were the brunt of it considering they directly impacted whether a player got on base or not


I honestly thought the third one was the worst. Riley had to start protecting below the zone and struck out on three low pitches. It may not have ended up changing anything, but the bases being loaded was just bad timing.


Yeah, if that's ball 1, his AB is entirely different.


True, I was talking about mostly impact at face value. I’m guessing the scorecard doesn’t account for change in batters approach but all three shown here were significant one way or another


I'm pretty sure the scorecard factors in run differential between an at bat starting 0-1 vs 1-0 (ie weighting results following from each situation) and bases being loaded would factor in


I looked it up and that is the 17th worst run difference added for a team this season. How the mlb has the shittiest umpires call the World Series is mind boggling.


I want to point out that this ump is statistically the best ump in the world series this year. He typically calls a pretty good game, and that run differential is definitely an outlier for him. So I think it's more coincidence than anything that his few missed calls affected the game that badly.


Run difference is the worst of the stats above to measure an ump’s performance on. On or two incorrect calls with the bases loaded or other high leverage situation will drastically swing it. The rest of last nights stats are at or slightly above average.


If we were talking about one game out of 162, ok. This is the World Series. One run can be the difference in a championship. Imagine if the Braves had lost by one run after those three pitches (and a few other generous strikes for Odorizzi) had all gone the Astros way. I think the only reason you're comfortable handwaving this away as normal variance is that we won pretty comfortably and the bad calls didn't have any impact on the outcome.


Aren’t the players going to be judged primarily on how they perform in high leverage situations?


And everyone was shitting on Riley for swinging at low garbage… he had to!


Yeah I was getting heated about that in our game thread. He got the worse of it. Several balls called strikes against him really early on


He had to swing defensively against so much garbage.


He should have just done what Joc did last series when that happened and go yard off the "strike" 6 inches out of the zone.


exactly, ump stole that whole fucking at-bat, and the difference in run expectancy probably doesn't account for Riley having to protect outside the zone


>doesn't account for having to protect outside the zone See: Every series involving the dodgers this postseason


Yeh that first pitch of the at bat was an awesome take, but he got fucked. It really fucked his whole at bat you could tell


Yeah we had the same situation with jd martinez last series. They called about 5 or 6 terrible outside pitches strikes, with a few to strike him out, and then he started swinging at balls because he had no choice. It was pretty unfortunate


Since this has been AT LEAST the 7th game in a row that a Braves' opponent has been favored on the ump scorecard, does someone have the overall +runs number throughout the playoffs against the Braves?


7th in a row, and 10 out of 11 for the entirety of the playoffs.


That's a definite yikes.


They're making a great case against them calling ball and strikes with this


4.5 - 5 i’m pretty sure


How many "runs" is equal to the consensus value of a "win"? Isn't it like 4.5?


I wouldn't try to derive further stats from these score cards honestly.


Needlessly recursive stat derivation is like 40% of the reason I love baseball


I don't think there's a consensus value when it comes to converting ump analysis to wins. But 9-10 runs is the consensus value when converting WAR to wins. https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/converting-runs-to-wins/


I feel like with context it makes a little sense. Narvaez and Will Smith are better framers than TdA, and even Maldonado by a hair. These are calls that should be made but I guess that’s why some teams value pitch framers ([strike rate on savant](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2021&team=&min=q&sort=5,1)


That makes perfect sense. But, here's my take: pitch framing has been talked about and made important for long enough now that shouldn't the umpires/game at least have tried to adjust to it by now? Pitch framing IS in essence "deceiving the umpire". With all the talk of "getting the call right"....


Pitch framing is the actual best argument for roboumps. It would eliminate a practice designed to deceive officials into gaining an advantage.


As of 2018 umpires improved every year since lasers were used to track strike zones. For what it's worth, a lot of these missed calls are how the game has always been called because that is what players and coaches expected and wanted. If an outside heater on the corner is caught and controlled by the catcher, theyll get that call. If they throw it again they may get an extra or too also (sales principle, get the umpire to say yes on one close call and they're more likely to say yes to the next one). But if your catcher has to move his glove 2 feet to catch it and 2 more feet to control it, it won't matter that it was on the plate, it's a ball because it looked like a ball to everybody in the building except the pitcher and the catcher. This has changed a lot in the last 15 years (as evidenced by the umpires improving every year), but human nature is human nature. Human eyes and perception are limited and flawed. There will always be room for strong catchers to gain a little, and for shitty catchers to lose a lot because of this reality.


The Braves have had a negative run impact because of umpires in 10 of their 11 postseason games, which has cost them a total of 4.34 runs. EDIT: for those confused, our NET runs is -4.34 throughout the playoffs.


Let’s go ahead and even that out over the rest of this series.




braves about to lose a game where the ump scorecard favors atlanta by like +4.5 runs lol


Bases loaded, 3-2 count. Pitch is on the outside corner, but the ump calls it a grand slam.


*Patrick Mahomes has entered the chat.*


I came here to post the same thing. Frustrating.


Do we have an average for how often offenses are affected negatively? Because my guess is that a negative run impact is more likely than a positive… not 90.9% like the Braves, but still


I’m saying our net has been a negative 10 out of 11 times


It’s worded oddly, I believe it’s trying to say that the scorecard has favored the opposing team in net, 10/11 games.


Breaking NEws: Braves investing millions in robot umps


i knew pitch #3 was going to make this list, that was brutal!


So bad, and it blatantly screwed up Riley's approach for the rest of the at bat.


What sucks is this is statistically the best umpire in the crew so this is going to be a very rough series.


This fact is no fun at all


a friendly reminder to everyone, that I will beat into the ground, is that we have an alternative! a much more accurate alternative!! [this](https://imgur.com/p5CVhKl) is a trial MLB ran using HawkEye ball tracking technology (used for tennis and cricket in pro tournaments for several years). it rated at 97% accuracy or above for every single metric except bunts, pickoff attempts, and other throws (ie., infield plays) which is a completely different kind of umpiring. 99% accuracy on pitch tracking location. I think everyone would be okay with a system that uses HawkEye to track strikes and balls, and an umpire crew to track bunts and pickoffs.




Overall the crew isn’t good but he graded out as the best out of the crew


That sure is a red corner down there


Except that one ball call... That's the one to actually bead about. His scorecard looks like he expanded the bottom right corners except when he didn't....in the 9th


This is exactly what I expected. Not a ton of missed calls, but they all went against the Braves. I saw one close pitch all night that went Atlanta's way.


Tbf I think the check swing call in the bottom of the 6th against Correa was unfair. That strikeout would have gone to a full count.


I mean. He went pretty well even. It's one of those that as being probably the most subjective call in baseball. I wouldn't be mad if if went either way.


To give context to this number: of the 11 blown calls, 10 went against the Braves. Egregious.


I knew it would be bad, but this is really bad.


I think someone in the r/Braves thread predicted that the scorecard would result in +1.6 for Houston. Insane that they were right. Worse, that you could absolutely predict it based on just watching in real time.


Kinda like Game 6 vs LA. At least we won. Let the umps off the hook (again).


I swear to god last night I heard him say ‘that’s outside’ then ring up one of the braves hitters.




If I was Freddie I would’ve asked, ‘what the fuck are you on right now, blue?’


It was freddie. Yep


The pitch to Riley was a particularly bad call because it forced him to swing at the other 2 pitches below the zone, and with bases loaded.




Game 5 was by +0.04


That game was also decidedly over earlier than any other game. The outlier is the outlier and such. lol


Absolute joke. Absolute silence from baseball media and Manfred


Unless I'm mistaken 10 of the 11 playoff games we've played have now been in the opponents favor...


That "ball" to Diaz has to got to be one of the worst calls I've ever seen in the World Series.


Last night: Braves need to shut up about the officials, they're fucking everyone over. Over 1.5 runs in favor of Houston. That ain't a "both sides" issue


It was against us every game of NLCS im pretty sure


It was. All 6 games were in favor of LA with a total runs favored of 2.5 for the series. So this further shows how egregious this game was


Knew it was bad. Good lord.


This is not the way.


10/11 playoff games let’s keep it going! (Activate reverse psychology)


If all things are equal, there’s a .5% chance of that happening. Pretty crazy lol.


Chris Conroy shouldn't get another World Series assignment after this year. That is just unacceptably bad.


And he was actually the best of the entire crew based on ump scorecards this year, strap in it’s gonna be a long series


Where is my boi Hoberg at? This is unacceptable


He was the replay umpire last night. He’s not a part of the 7 man crew and so I don’t know if that means he does replays for the whole series or just one game.


We can count this as a shutout, right? All while losing a pitcher to a broken leg against their unstoppable offense.


Counts as a 7-1 victory


Atlanta wins 6.81 to 1.19


Pretty sure that is a scorigami


*Jazz music intensifies*


This is the 7th straight game that the umpire scorecard has favored the Braves opponent. The odds of a coin landing on the same side 7 times in a row is .781%. Edit: For more context, this is the 10th time out of 11 postseason games that the umpire scorecard has favored the Braves opponent. The odds of a coin landing on the same side 10 out of 11 times is .537%.


I was at a casino recently and the roulette wheel came up black 18 spins in a row.


And just think, there’s virtually no human element to that.


Depends on the casino lol


That makes it what ? 7-8 games in a row where the calls are going against the Braves? Not pointing at a conspiracy or anything, just that statistically speaking we can hopefully get a game called our way soon....


Where's the dodgers fan that got downvoted to hell because he thought our ump complaints were cringey.


Probably nowhere near this subreddit right now lol


No, we’re cheering for you assholes. I find it hilarious that the cheating assholes are getting free benefits from the umpires and y’all still killed them. GO JOC! “I knew it I’m surrounded by assholes!”


Hahaha I appreciate the support! I meant more that one dude in particular complaining about ump bias. I’m hoping that my team doesn’t let the country down but gee golly Atlanta sure does have a fucked up sports history


If you beat these cheating assholes….in the name of baseball, in the name of America, in the name of decency ….. all the failures of the 90’s will be erased


One of the worst Overall Favor’s I’ve seen.


How long has it been since the Braves were favored by the umps in a game? 7 games at the very least since the dodgers series had them favored the entire time.....and for this game to have a high differential. Kinda sus.


im not a huge fan of Ump Scorecard as i don't think it is very accurate with its assumptions and usually we see things with an xRun of less then .5 which is good, that being said i think this one does do a good job of showing the Conroy was pretty solid but that when he missed last night they were huge misses that could have had a major impact on the game


I think you sum up exactly what everyone here is debating. Overall, his strike zone was consistent. The misses were bad and they favored one team thus Braves fans were frustrated because it was one sided. Not a lot of bad calls, but potentially important ones.


Braves should have won 6 - 0.38. Damn umps!


Actually should have been 6.81 - 1.19. As we all expected.


I thought there were a lot more missed calls than this. There were 2 consecutive pitches that were about 8 inches above the strike zone that were called strike to (IIRC) Riley at one point.


Our expectations were low but holy shit


The Smith to Diaz one was pretty egregious. Glad it didn't matter.


It’s frustrating that Smith had to throw more than he needed to. Ugh


Well it can't get any worse right, I mean atleast next game we get *checks notes* Ron Kulpa


These ump scorecards are my favorite thing in baseball right now.


it was absolutely ridiculous last night


Whoomp, there it is


Who else heard the whistling last night?


This isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. He didn't actually miss that many calls, but the ones he missed were in particularly important situations. There is no magical umpire ability to suddenly start seeing the ball better as the situation gets more important.


I think this the bad call REALLY mattered when Riley had that first pitch strike called that was way below the box. You saw him then swing at two lower pitches likely because he felt that they would be called strikes given the poor call. Bases were loaded with two outs and the entire at bat was ruined because of an egregiously bad call.


Yes, and if it was correctly called a ball then the pitcher is more likely to stay away from that pitch which would benefit Riley as well.


The only one that ended up really mattering. But in the bottom of the 9th, awarding a walk instead of a strikeout is potentially extremely impactful.


It's not just that he missed them in important situations. He only missed them in Houston's favor. That's what this graphic doesn't show, what % of missed calls favor a particular team? In this case, I'd be willing to bet it's nearly 100% in favor of Houston, which is inexcusable.


Missed 11 calls and 10 of them were in favor of Houston according to umpire audit on twitter.


That's the big thing for me. If an umpire has a shitty strikezone, but it's consistent for both teams then it's on the pitchers to exploit that and if they don't, that's on them. When the strikezone is so clearly tilted for one team it's a problem.


Good take. But it still hurt to be on the receiving end. Less so when you are up 4/5 runs.


Its ok, guys, he only screwed up when it really mattered...


There’s a problem when 10 out of 11 of your missed calls benefit the Astros, he was squeezing the zone for the Braves and expanding it for the Astros


...where are you getting those numbers? This says only 8 mistaken calls were made.


Umpire auditor on Twitter had the stat for 10/11 missed calls in favor of the Astros


Umpire Auditor on twitter, different accounts but same premise


Exactly. It wasn't that he missed some -- it's that they were all one-sided. Painfully.


Not sure what numbers you're looking at but >90% of blown ball/strike calls going against one team in a WS game is really, REALLY bad


If you’re going to favor a team as an umpire, you’re not going to do it with every call. You’re only going to do it where it matters. That’s what happened last night. And I don’t think the umpires are consciously favoring the Astros (why would they, because fuck the Astros). I think there’s an innate bias against the team that’s leading, especially if they’re NOT the home team. Robo-umps would eliminate these shenanigans.




And in fact, the higher the stress, the more likely they are to miss a call!


I don't understand why people are praising the overall accuracy. Most of the calls were not on borderline pitches and were clear cut. He royally fucked up on the borderline pitches.


That's my frustration. I'm willing to cut the ump a lot of slack in a lot of cases. Having to eyeball something accurately when it's traveling 94mph is really hard. But a lot of these weren't that close. It's not like these were a half an inch outside or inside. They were inches (inside or outside) the zone.


Not to mention that there were a couple of times he called strike 3 on a pitch outside, they proceeded to throw a pitch in the same spot, and it was ball 1. It was maddening


What you guys aren’t realizing is that because the strike zone was so big for the Braves batters at the beginning of the game, they had to swing at anything close all game. The Astros didn’t have that problem. So maybe this umpire scorecard doesn’t make it look as bad as it was but it doesn’t really take into account how it affects the actual at bats of each player


Please give us robo umps. Even a decent game has a bigger RE swing than each player except for Valdez, who gave up 6 runs.


To me, that seems rather one sided.


Will ESPN or MLB talk about it? No. They will comment on the chop and the Braves name. Clowns.


Hey other Atlanta fans in this thread. Could you guys chill with the downvotes? You're making us look like assholes.


This shows just how good the Braves are playing. Umpires against them in virtually every game…


Maybe people can see why Braves fans have been complaining about the strike zone so much. If you get 95% of calls correct, you're doing good unless all of the fucking calls go for one team.


Leslie Nielsen in Naked Gun was a better ump than last night's