By - bluesteel8888
Is there a possibility that we hit our testing capacity? I'm hoping not and that we are at the peak. But now I wonder how long we will be at the peak. Hopefully short.
Yes, we're probably at the testing capacity right now. [That might be indicated by the positivity rate](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html); if it's high -- which is what's happening now -- that indicates a large number of cases are not being caught by testing. That could be because we're not testing enough, either because of a low effort in testing (which is not the case in NYC) or test capacity limits.
1 in 3 people testing positive. Going to get tested seems like a good way to catch Covid right now.
Or testing at home, right?
I think case counts were up last week due to a lot of testing due to people travelling or attending holiday parties with elderly relatives.
What we have this week is the schools going back so let's wait and see how that affects things.
Yeah, I'm willing to be that we're gonna hit our peak in the next week or two then it's gonna drop dramatically.
At least that's what I'm hoping.
It has to, it's running out of hosts. So many have had it. My coworker who's wife works at a hospital says that 30% of patients coming in for non-covid stuff are testing positive for covid and are asymptomatic
Or put another way: Xmas bump is prob over, New Years and back to school bumps still to come.
I don’t think this variant cares about our behavior that much. Unless there’s a super strict lockdown it will spread like wildfire.
Lots of New Years events and gatherings were cancelled so I suspect any bump from that will definitely be smaller
I think you’re probably right but there was still a lot of traveling last weekend.
% of tests positive is more useful, because the amount of tests isn’t that helpful.
Also having less than 5% of the tests come back positive is a useful indicator that spread isn’t out of control. (Currently plateauing at under 30%)
But schools just opened yesterday! It will likely go up.
Cases are going to drop, my prediction. Manhattan was a friggin ghost town yesterday. Call it a voluntary soft lockdown of the well-off.
Pretty sure that’s more because it was 20 degrees outside on a Tuesday night.
My (mostly maskless) gym was more crowded than it’s been in the last month.
Grand Central has been typically packed though, and it was empty yesterday as were my commuter trains and subway. The gym is crowded because it's the second weekday of the year. It's always the most crowded time for gyms.
Was it though? Everywhere I walked, restaurants were full, clubs were full, and sightseeing attractions had a bunch of people
Not where I was yesterday. East side of Manhattan from Houston to 42nd. Streets, restaurants, bars, trains, grand central, all with about 25% of the people I have seen over the last 2 months. Chinatown was a little more crowded.
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats!
Wow. I wonder what other numbers it does. 4 blah blah. 2 yatta yatta. 0 womp womp.
2 four six eight, who do we appreciate? /u/LuckyNumber-Bot
My vaxxed and boosted ass was sitting at my office with my Powecon N95 on so . . .
It was ridiculously cold last night. That's the only incentive I needed to stay inside, lol.
> Manhattan was a friggin ghost town yesterday.
Huh? Things seems normal in HK
Grand Central maybe 80 people at 4 o’clock yesterday.
Must be nice to be wealthy enough not to risk your life working a low paid service job .
Pay closer attention to the death count. At the start of the pandemic in March/April 2020 the city was averaging 500+ deaths per day. Now we are only at 51.
Case numbers are basically useless now, we should focus solely on hospitalizations and deaths.
Cases absolutely matter. Covid is not just about death but also about disability. The virus can affect anywhere in the body for the entirety of the vascular system including disrupting brain function. Even what appears as a mild or asymptomatic case can show up later as long term aftereffects. Long term fatigue and decline in cognitive function is going to have a sustained impact on society that we are not anywhere near understanding yet.
Cases matter, but we're basically blind to the real case counts for 2 reasons:
1. it's highly dependent on testing. As someone else noted, tons of ppl self-tested before the holidays which would drive the "known" case number up. But we have know idea what the "unknown" case count is.
2. Positivity rate is biased by people being more likely to take the test if they have a reason to (e.g. symptoms). so 30% positivity doesn't mean 30% of NYers have it.
Also, anecdotally, it \_seems\_ that the mild omicron cases don't have the same long-lasting effects that delta and prior did. But we're early on so we'll see if this pans out…
While “Long COVID” is certainly possible, most who are vaccinated and especially those who do not experience symptoms are unlikely to develop it.
If you are unvaccinated or feel sick, please self-isolate until you feel better. However, if you do not experience any symptoms, you should
1. Not get tested to begin with, save tests for those who are sick and/or live with someone who is immunocompromised.
2. Go about your daily life; work, school, whatever it may be.
All of this aside, Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns will do little to stop it’s spread. We must understand that the vast majority of us will live with COVID just fine, while a limited few may die or experience long-term issues. Just like with the flu or driving in a car at high-speed, there will always be some risk.
Yep, yep, give us that sweet sweet dismissal of long-term effects and disability.
We're all gonna get it at some point, stop being so dramatic.
That's not even true or necessary, except that some people keep acting like fools when it comes to basic precautions.
Well, most scientists agree that most people will get it eventually so I think I'll trust them.
Do you have any data regarding the long-term effects of COVID? What is prevalence? What is considered “long-term”? What symptoms are considered to be part of long-COVID? I have not seen any set guidance on this.
Regardless, Omicron is so contagious that those I know who are triple-vaxxed, wear an N-95, and only go out for essentials still got the virus. At some point all of us will get it. While I am not a fan of anyone experiencing long-term effects, that is a reality we will have to face regardless of what measures we take, as COVID will never be eradicated.
Do you have data to support your claim?
I don't doubt you're correct, I'd just like to be certain before i share that info with others.
The bottom line is none of us have data on the long-term effects of the virus. However, we do know that few out of the many who have been infected so far did not develop long-COVID.
Regarding the person I know being triple-vaxxed and only going out rarely still getting COVID, I don’t think any hard data exists for that. All I can say is that Omicron is up to 3.7x more infectious than Delta and most of the masks that people wear (cloth, simple surgical) do not block the viral droplets. Therefore, you can easily get infected doing everyday activities such as taking the subway or grocery shopping.
Impact isn't only measured by deaths. Many people, myself included, had mild to moderate cases and developed long-lasting and harsh health problems as a result. A lower death count is always a good thing, but it's still important to minimize case numbers.
I don't think that we should be going into a full lockdown just because some people are getting infected, nor did I say that I did. People will always get covid, just like the flu, but when infection rates are as high as they are right now we should be shutting down even if the death rates aren't as high as they were before. Once we're consistently back at the infection rates we had over the summer (or even early fall) I feel like it's fine to open things up more.
I got COVID in early 2021 before the vaccines were widely available, so no, I was not vaccinated. I just got it again (2 doses + booster) and while it was much milder than before (yay vaccines!) it still sucked. I'm a college student who, aside from mild and well-controlled asthma, is low-risk and was pretty healthy pre-covid. Now I have autoimmune and neurological problems and chronic pain caused by lung damage and breathing problems. I know multiple other people in similar positions as me. If moving schools online and closing stores and restaurants for a few weeks while cases calm down can help protect people's lives and health, why shouldn't we do that?
Nearly all people I know with Covid right now are fully vaccinated. Soooo 👆???
Ok, re-read your post. Think.
This is very uninteresting.
If you don't think that locking down prevents the spread in the long run, explain why lockdowns in Australia and New Zealand did just that? Yes, they've had cases again now that Omicron is spreading, but the whole reason we have variants is because of low restrictions and increased transmission. The more we allow the virus to infect people, the higher chance it has to mutate into a variant that is more infectious (like Omicron). If you lock things down and do everything you can to limit the spread, the virus runs out of hosts and also has less opportunities to mutate into a more infectious or vaccine-resistant variant. Lockdowns hurt people financially because our government is shit. In other countries, people were provided with food, medical care, pay, and more during lockdowns so that they wouldn't be struggling financially. Also, people constantly getting sick and having to isolate, people becoming disabled from long covid, and people dying isn't awesome for the economy or people's personal finances.
We're shutting down schools and businesses for everyone's safety. There are small children who can't get vaccinated. There are immunocompromised people who can't get vaccinated. There are vaccinated people who still get infected. As previously stated, transmission among anyone, including the unvaccinated assholes, is what allows for highly infectious variants like Omicron. If we don't do anything to stop the spread then we're setting ourselves up for more variants, more infections, more deaths, and more chaos.
You seem to forget that kids aren't the only people inside schools. Should teachers, administrators, cafeteria staff, and custodians just go fuck themselves? My mom is immunocompromised and teaches preschool. Excuse me for not wanting her to die.
The bottom line is that the infection rates of summer and fall will not return until late spring. NYC is cold, so we will all be indoors.
Variants will continue to arise regardless of whether we slow down case numbers. Outside the US are many nations with low vaccination rates that will continue to pump out variants. Regardless, viruses will always mutate. Influenza is different every single year.
I believe that our country was generous with COVID aid. Americans have more savings than ever. There is no reason for people without symptoms to isolate, because few people develop long COVID, and a tiny, select few are dying.
Schools should absolutely not be shut down. Over the course of the pandemic, only 2 out of every 2 million children have died and very few have in NYC (source below). Children have missed out on school, sports, and other important social activities for almost two years now. Socialization and in-person instruction are critical to a child’s development.
Those who are immunocompromised should definitely be getting paid to stay home and protect themselves. However, that should not impact my ability to live my life (immunocompromised people never impacted anyones lives until COVID). Like many others, I cannot WFH nor do I desire to. Also, I suffer from anxiety and lockdown was very rough for me. I need to be out, I need to work, and I need to regularly interact with my friends and loved ones face-to-face.
> Many people, myself included
You are correct, I should not have used the word “useless”, data is always our friend.
The problem is that our interpretation of COVID case data has not changed since March 2020.
It’s been many weeks since omicron started running through the entire city. I think if we were supposed to see a massive amount of deaths, that would have started already.
Well new variant so it doesn’t matter if omicron goes away IHU variant said to be more transmissible than omicron welcome to the never ending merry go round for all of you getting your hopes up of returning to normal go ahead and snap out of your fantasy land
I don't know if that's true. From what i've read, since IHU has been throughly outcompeted by Omicron, it may never really take hold.
Well even if besides IHU we all know this isn’t going to end this year if ever there will always be another variant on the horizon what we knew as normal pre 2020 will never be agian
Yeah but they might get less severe and more people may have some immunity. That's the idea at least.
Wishful thinking honestly I think they are cooking this sht up in labs and releasing it 🤦🏽♂️
Ohhhhh yeah I don't think so buddy but you do you.
This vaccine news gives me some hope:
I bet there is another peak in about 5 days
sign of the times: our nearby Chase branch is closed today due to lack of staffing.
so i guess until they have enough staffing to remain open, then we are still fraked.
btw, we should have another week of this as the back to school crowd gets sick.
out of 24 classmates, my kid had 7 no shows and 3 tested positive in the school
For all of you saying cases will drop tell that to Florida
Could be from people not being able to get tested.
If last year is any indication, we hit peak between 1/6-1/9. So....... Hopefully 🙏
I'm also cautiously optimistic that this peak will look like the South Africa chart with a rapid decline.
I feel like the main story here is you have a .0017% chance of death? Probably over reported death counts due to people dying of other complications and boop they had Covid. Meanwhile your chance of dying in a car crash going to get tests that don’t exist is much much higher, or for our pedestrians probably getting stabbed or shot on our streets is higher (for our citizen app users) - idk I’m double vaxxed and have the booster… feel like we should just not live in fear anymore
The difference of this and 2020 is the government no longer cares . There is little talk of flattening the curb and no effort to do so . They don’t want to give a stimulus package or unemployment . Their philosophy is sacrifice the vulnerability, fill the ICU and the economy is worth more than your life .
I see little evidence of a peak .
If we'd introduced lockdowns two weeks ago when a lot of people were screeching for them, this leveling off would have been attributed to that, just like all previous lockdowns.
I think this is going to be a really important learning experience for a lot of people.
Some people were clearly under the incorrect impression that unchecked spread just continues until literally everyone has been infected.
We know from cities that never locked down that that isn't the case, and at a point the virus wave naturally slows then fades.
I'm glad governor and mayor held firm with no shutdowns. They can never happen again.
You murderous fuck
It doesn't matter, even if someone wanted lockdowns, and they were the absolute way to stop this, they . . . will . . . never . . . happen in the US.
We can't even get people to wear masks or get vaccinated.
Vaccinated people aren’t dying at any meaningful level.
Covid is not just about death but also about disability. Cases absolutely matter. The virus can affect anywhere in the body for the entirety of the vascular system including disrupting brain function. Even what appears as a mild or asymptomatic case can reveal long term after effects. The evidence for this is becoming more clear. Long term fatigue and decline in cognitive function is going to have a sustained impact on society that we are not anywhere near understanding yet.
Boy you sure sound extremely certain about long term effects of something you said we are not anywhere near understanding.
Btw I am replying to someone who used the word “murderous.” Murder refers to death. Deaths are barely nudging upwards, hospitalizations are barely nudging upwards, particularly among the vaccinated. Vaccinations provide a strong immune response, and it’s the best we can do at this point. We simply can’t lock down again.
Yes, you're right in the context of the conversation. To be fair, as you pointed out, it all started with 'You murderous fuck' so all bets are off to where the convo will go 😆
What counts as a meaningful level of death? If one of the vaccinated people who died was your family member would you still say it isn't a meaningful level? Obviously everyone who is able to get vaccinated should, and a lower death rate is still better than a higher one, but referring to death levels as meaningful or not meaningful is cruel and isn't the only metric we should look at when considering covid policies, especially since people who survive can still get seriously ill and have long-term complications.
I would say the meaningful level would be one at which hospitals are close to overwhelmed. We aren’t even near that point.
This may shock you but people died of diseases before the pandemic, too. We didn’t call people murderers when we didn’t shut down society during flu seasons.
If we wait until hospitals are close to overwhelmed to implement safety policies that won't do anything. The spread will have progressed at that point and since covid has anywhere between a 2-14 day incubation period, the people who will end up overwhelming the hospitals will already be infected. Healthcare workers have been saying this since the start. There is no reason to wait until a certain number of people die or become seriously sick to start keeping people safe. If we had actual, real lockdowns at the start of this we could be at a point where the transmission rate and severity was like the flu's and the only thing we'd have to do was get vaccinated and maybe mask up in doctors offices and on the train. People keep saying they don't want to live in fear but if we had done a real lockdown at the start of this and if our government had proper public health infrastructure in place we would be able to have pretty much normal lives instead of alternating between a few weeks or a month of semi-normalcy and a month of absolute chaos and sickness.
Yes, people did die of diseases before the pandemic. And when polio was plaguing the country, it was taken seriously, the government didn't massively politicize or downplay it, and people rushed to get their kids vaccinated, which is why there hasn’t been a polio case that originated in the US since 1979. The 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak looked similar to the COVID outbreak. In one city, health officials told people it was just a "normal flu" and allowed people to gather for a huge parade, and 10 days later over 1,000 people were dead. In other cities, they mandated masks and stay-at-home orders and fined people who broke them, and far fewer people died. If you think that wearing masks and not taking safety precautions in 1918 wasn't heavily debated and politicized or that people didn't have incredibly strong opinions and insult one another over their choices (or that they didn't call out those who refused to follow precautions), you should look up the political cartoons from that era. You'll very quickly see that being nonchalant in the face of a deadly virus has always made people angry. Being content with the country not learning anything in over 100 years is a pretty miserable way to live.
New Zealand moved into full isolation on March 25 (Level 4 on their scale), down to Level 3 (allowed to see people outside of their households, schools opened at limited capacity) on April 28, Level 2 (schools fully open, businesses open and gatherings allowed w/masks and limited capacity) on May 14, and Level 1 (no restrictions except for overseas travel) on June 9. Since the US is larger than New Zealand, it would obviously take a bit longer here, but I think that if we had fully locked down in the way that New Zealand had (and if we had the level of public infrastructure that New Zealand has), we might've been behind them by a month. If we had done that and gotten COVID transmission rates substantially down in the US, it would've also had a larger impact on the rest of the world seeing as we're a large country with lots of travel and lots of transmission, so people from the US who travel abroad and people who travel to the US wouldn't have been spreading/catching COVID. Obviously being in full lockdown for 3.5-4 months would've sucked and the gov would've needed to seriously get their shit together and provide and substantial financial relief and support to people, but honestly I would've preferred losing one summer to losing 2 years (most likely more seeing as case counts are still high and people still aren't taking it seriously).
That's not the problem, the problem is that they meaningfully spread the disease to the unvaccinated. remember there are some places that haven't even reached 50% vaccinations.
These result is deaths. Preventable deaths. And the guy I was replying too seems a little too ok with over a thousand Americans/day perishing
Folks have had almost a year to get vaccinated. They’ve chosen instead to subscribe to crackpot conspiracies and obvious political disinformation. Honestly not my problem if they die. Fuck em
How am I murderous fuck for pointing out that cases appear to be cresting without a lockdown?