Q3 EV sales in USA, I make that 82% market share for Tesla.
By - RobDickinson
Link to tweet.
99,316 out of 121,301 EV sales.
Doesn’t include Hyundai/Kia, Jaguar I-Pace, or Polestar. Probably another 5k or so between those 3.
Ipace is at around 300 a quarter in USA.
Hyundai about 2500 ish I'd guess
Polestar? A few hundred?
Soon we could see Model S/X alone will be more than all the competition combined. Impressive.
I assume Fremont will reduce Y & increase S/X production when Austin goes online.
S and X have always been capped at 100,000 and been downhill since countries have been able to get cheaper Teslas.
Historical trends might not be the best way to judge S/X demand. Before the refresh they were built on an older/slower production line and the demand was slowing do to their age as a model. The refresh would bring improvements to that production line, and the demand "should" return given their spec.
That being said Tesla selling more than 100k-125k S/X in a year (~25k/Q) is probably the most bullish expectation.
25k would be more than the competition combined based on that tweet. Of course, competition volume will likely increase too by then.
Yeah I just don't see the need to buy an S when a Model 3/Y Performance gives you everything you need at half the price. I mean, the S will probably be a 500k car where I live. I could never justify spending that much on a single vehicle.
It's all about the flex. S/X demanded is capped only by the number of people who have bigger wallets then penises.
Hahaha. I guess it is pretty cool to own the fastest accelerating production car on Earth.
S and X owner here -- tell your mom to bring the magnifying glass tonight; I don't want a repeat of last time!!!
Have you been in a 3? I drive one and while it's not the biggest car out there it has plenty of room. I agree people might need more and opt for the S or X, but it's not what I would call pretty damn small. And if space is the limiting factor there's always the Y now.
Not that I necessarily agree with the poster above, the S also has things the 3 doesn't that some people might want - the screen right in front of you in addition to the infotainment, and now the rear seat screen, I want to say the S has cooled seats as well and adjustable air suspension that the 3 lacks.
I have an older S and would place and order for a new S if I could get it with a factory hitch. The X is too big and I don’t need fancy doors. The Y would probably work but I would prefer 400 miles of range over its current 326 as there are still areas I like to drive to in winter that lack fast chargers.
There are aftermarket options, but they are not as nice as a factory hitch with built in trailer controller and trailer mode like the Y/X have.
People complain that the 3 is too big - it's one of the top criticisms for sales in Europe and Japan.
Well the 3 is a downgrade in size from my previous car, a Volkswagen Arteon, but it is still way more than my family needs. It is slightly larger inside compared to a C-Class, 3-Series, and Porsche Taycan, especially in terms of legroom.
It’s all about how much money you have or the quality of life you prefer to live, or project. There are a whole lot of people who can afford an S or X, who also wouldn’t be seen in a small car like a 3 or a Y.
If I had the extra income to afford the S, I would prefer it over a 3 or Y. But I don’t quite yet — actually I can afford it but its more than I think would be wise to spend at this time. A Y or a 3 are pretty great options as far as I’m concerned, so I’ll buy one of those instead and consider something more expensive the next time.
If it is capped, that doesn't mean the demand for it isn't there.
A refresh Model X could see a big demand from more fortunate people and luxury fleet operator.
Yes but all the non-Teslas listed there total around 22,000. Even capped at 100,000 S/X worldwide, I could see the US sales exceeding all non-Tesla US EV sales.
The thing about "the competition is coming" is as long as you keep saying it, they never actually have to come.
Ford Blue ~~Cruise~~ Balls
Same as Blue “Balls” Origin
How does this only have 3 upvotes? K now it had >30 there we go lol.
Because it doesn’t.
Ah there we go!
competitor has come
Bad example. Here is a more serious competitor:
Remember the Halo killer and the iPhone killer?
Neither do most people lol
Ok, so cars may not go exactly like that, but Tesla is set to maintain the GWh for this decade and that comes with an economy of scale lead and purchasing power
And when they do, this sub just covers it's ear and shouts. Lucid is beating Tesla's max range. Mach-e has similar range to the s and x and similar sales in the US. Rivian already beat Tesla to an a ev truck.
"The competition is coming" is the rallying cry of the shorts, which means that Tesla is going to get crushed by the competition. That clearly is not happening. S & X are sold out into next year. The fact that another car has similar range and sales in no way supports the short "competition is coming" thesis.
Edit: The Mach-e isn't even a competitor to the S & X. It's starting price is $43,000. It competes with the Y.
Edit 2: I just followed up on the "Mach-e has similar range to S & X" claim, and no it doesn't. The Mach-e's *target range* is 305 miles with the optional extended range battery.
Competition doesn't mean getting "crushed." GM and Toyota compete, neither have been "crushed."
To me, competition means competitors with a similar compelling product. Before there weren't any, now there are.
It can mean that to you if you want it to, but that's not what it has meant historically. It meant that Tesla's good times and growth will end, and Tesla will either get crushed or be relegated to a small niche in the market.
Of course, at some point Tesla's growth in market share for the overall market (EV+ICE) will end, and there will be competitors who maintain share in that future state. But holding a 10-20% share of the overall market rather than 50% share in 2030 is NOT what "competition is coming" has meant. It meant something more like Tesla would be stuck with 1% or less of the total market as of around 2025, and wouldn't be able to grow beyond that.
I think it's a little disingenuous to give "competition" a new definition just so we can say there's no competition.
I would agree. I also don't believe there is no competition. I'm just referring to the way the phrase "competition is coming for Tesla" is used.
If I say "winter is coming" it has a specific meaning from how it was used in Game of Thrones. Namely, bad times are coming. But we aren't redefining "winter" in general, just using it a particular way in a phrase. Are you not familiar with the short seller tropes?
I was discussing whether or not there's relevant competition. Plenty of people jumped in to say there's no competition.
Competition means not getting crushed.
There aren’t really yet. But there probably will be fairly soon. It’s been awhile since so looked into Rivian and Licid, but they seemed to be actually competitive products (maybe not on pricing yet).
Nothing is competitive from the legacy automakers yet, but they are getting better.
I think most acknowledge there is competition. It's just that the market for decent EV's is currently so big it doesn't feel like other brands are taking away demand from Tesla's.
Their production is so limited to what you would expect from the "big boys" it is not yet seen as competition in the way the media portrays it - a danger to Tesla.
Lucid's max range vehicle also costs $150k+. Nothing compared to the Model 3/Y. If the "competition" can match Tesla for price AND range then we will take them seriously.
I’ll personally admit “competition is here” when I see a competitor EV on the market that makes me want to buy it. So far, there are so many moats for Tesla ownership, from supercharging to software to actual production capacity, that just seeing fancy EV prototypes out there doesn’t register as “competition” because getting one of those would require huge compromises compared to getting a Tesla.
On the other hand I know of people who went months without their model 3 for a simple repair for a defective roof that cracked from hail. In general the customer service from Tesla seems mediocre at best.
Mach-e, ev6, and ioniq5 are not prototypes FYI.
Lucid air beats Tesla's max range too.
And if you want an electric truck Tesla won't have one for well over a year (at best, I think we are all prepared for more delays), but rivian has one now and Ford's is coming early 2022. Tesla has 0 competition for these right now.
Even if all you said is true, you haven’t acknowledged that any of the moats I listed have been breached by competitors.
At best you could say Rivian launching a truck shows they beat Tesla’s production capacity for one model, but Rivian’s production numbers are going to be so small for the foreseeable future that it still hardly registers for me.
I don't know anyone who wants to pay $10k for a beta fsd gimmick that may or may not ever be released for their car. Not sure how that's a moat.
Supercharger network is something of value, but that is not a showstopper for anyone I've talked to. And Tesla is opening those up to 3rd party cars this year anyway...
Model S and Lucid aren’t really in the same segment. Tesla could get lucid range if it charged 170,000$ as well but it’s not the segment Tesla wants to go to. Tesla focused more on volume than ultra luxury.
Mach e is also not in the same category as a and x, the prices, features and performance are way different. Mach e is in the model y segment and model y is able to be produced at scale with great margins and is killing the Mach e in sales.
Tesla beat rivian and most every other auto company to good EV cars, so what? Why does it matter if rivian made a truck first?
So in other words, Tesla has no product that can compete with the lucid airs range. Not even a maxed out ~150k plaid s.
Tesla also has no product that can compete with the rivian truck. In early 2022 Tesla will have no product that can compete with the f150 lightning either.
Meanwhile we have the mach-e, ioniq5, and ev6 competitive with the model 3.
So, can we still say there's no competition for Tesla? Lol.
It's not that simple. Please show me a competitor for AP and FSD. Oh wait, there are none. Zero. Show me a competitor for Tesla's supercharging network. Oh wait, there aren't any. Tesla is not only a car company. They are a software company. They are an energy company. So no, as of now I just don't see any competitors for Tesla. Because most people who buy Tesla cars buy it BECAUSE it is a Tesla, BECAUSE of its charging network, and BECAUSE of its technology. Personally I wouldn't trust any other electric car on the market today. I sincerely hope that changes.
Fsd doesn't exist yet. There is a beta which doesn't actually have full self driving and costs $10k with no release date in sight and it might not ever work for your car.
Yeah I've heard this narrative before, you're just saying the same thing the permabulls have said for years now. I get it, if Tesla owns all energy, auto, logistics without competition then number go up.
It doesn't matter. Is there a viable competitor on the market today? No. Your bs about FSD not existing is false anyway. FSD does exist. It's the name of the software.
Competitor to a nonexistent full self driving product still in beta with no release date? Lol 😂
Remember the autonomous robo taxi fleet promised for 2019, then 2020? Two years later we are still in beta.
FSD is the name given to Tesla's level two autonomy system. Do you think you're clever, claiming it doesn't exist because it can't drive itself yet? Porsche's Taycan Turbo exists, despite not actually having a Turbocharger. Jetskis exist, despite not having a jet engine or skis attached to it. FSD exists because it is the name given to Tesla's optional software upgrade for their cars.
Point is it's not an actual product ready for consumers. It's beta. Its years late on its promise with no end in sight.
>Only about 11% of newly sold Teslas during Q2 2021 were equipped with the FSD feature.
Clearly most consumers don't think this $10k upgrade for beta software that might achieve it's promise of full autonomy is worth it. So I'm confused why you're trying so hard to tell me how big of a deal it is right now for competition.
Well what I’m saying is that Tesla isn’t going for the same segment as lucid. Just the same way lucid isn’t going for the same market as Tesla. They are two different categories and such don’t really compete with each other and take from one another’s demand. If you say they are competing brands well Tesla produces orders of magnitude more vehicles, with better margins, and significantly better profits. So in that regard lucid isn’t even close to being a competitor.
Rivian is definitely a competitor to the cybertruck, I agree.
And I was just disagreeing that the mache is a competitor to the model s and x as you said. I said it is a competitor to the model y, and it is being crushed and not a significant competitor at all
Lucid is competing with high end Tesla right now. Just like how Tesla started off on high end.
Tesla producing more units doesn't mean lucid isn't competition.
Agree that rivian is also competition, just like the mache F1 lightning, ev6, ioniq5.
>So, can we still say there's no competition for Tesla? Lol.
Right but when you say competition, it implies that there is an amount of choice that consumers have and that choice can significantly impact demand for companies products. But what we are seeing is that Tesla has near unlimited demand while still producing magnitudes of order more EVs than lucid, ford. That’s not really competition. Just because you can make an EV car, doesn’t mean it is competition. Take for example the Nissan Leaf, no sane person would call that a competitor to Tesla.
We’ll see if rivian is an actual competitor to the cyber truck. My guess is not due to price point, building at scale, autonomous driving.
Ok now apply the same reasoning to all the evs manufacturers that are also selling all the cars they can manufacture. Would you say Tesla is not competition for them?
Rivian has a product. Cybertruck doesn't exist yet. We'll see if Tesla can actually release this product that's already been delayed multiple times.
Regarding autonomous driving: again not a value add because it doesn't exist. And already late (autonomous taxis in 2019) with no end in sight.
They don’t make near enough cars to compete, and Tesla isnt competing with them. They are just in the same space of EVs. And the market is that large for everyone to sell their stock. Rivian, Ford, lucid etc make low production vehicles, with very low margins or even at a loss. Tesla isn’t competition for them, simply because they aren’t even trying to compete or they hope to one day.
Rivian does have a product now but extremely low volume. Tesla is gearing a new factory for much more production than rivian could ever dream of in the next decade. But yes we will see if it can be pulled off.
There’s different levels to autonomy, I didn’t mean full level 5 driving. But Tesla software suite is way better than the others and continues to get better faster than others. It’s a great feature and advantage. Seriously it’s a life hack
I disagree that there is no competition in the ev market 👍
Lucid is planning on selling 577 cars in the first year right? Good on them but that's not competition yet
Then a 20x increase to 20k vehicles next year. Then a 2.5x increase to 50k the next year.
Sure let's talk then, today they've not delivered a single car.
I don't understand how a competing car available for delivery that is getting great reviews and growing sales is not competition.
It seems to this sub that competition is when a company dominates an industry. But that's not what it is. To each their own.
It's not though. They've not delivered 1 to a customer yet.
If you order today when will you get a car, 2023?
Mach-e is being delivered now. Ev6 is being delivered now. Ioniq5 is being delivered now. VW has decent cars now or very soon too.
I just don't understand how none of those are competition for the cars they are competing with (3, y).
Wait I thought you're talking about lucid?
When I mentioned the units being produced I was talking about lucid in response to your question.
When I mentioned competing cars being delivered I was talking about competing cars being delivered.
Oh no Lucid is beating Tesla in the luxury car segment? Thank God Tesla's main aim is the mass market, you know, where cars cost less than 170k.
Lucid is doing exactly what Tesla did to start off. Lucid is competing with Tesla's high end now. And it's got more range, something this sub used to champion as showing Tesla's supremacy.
And is that why they've implemented the old methods of radar and lidar guided self driving? Lucid's cars have no innovation. Just a beefed up EQS. Nothing more, nothing less. Nothing to stand out from the crowd. The Plaid comes with a carbon-wrapped motor. Thats interesting and innovative. The Lucid? I struggle to find something about that car which excites me.
Lucid air dream is getting amazing reviews and beats Tesla's range while having a far nicer interior. Who cares if the plaid has a carbon wrapped motor? Lol. People in this sub are so divorced from consumers.
Lucid has motors with almost 3x the power density of Tesla's, are we still pretending lucid can't innovate?
Yes but do they have better autonomous systems than Tesla? Because that was Tesla's main selling point. Also, can the Lucid really beat the Tesla performance-wise? Because that remains to be seen.
Lucid air is nearly as fast as the plaid while having noticably longer range and far nicer interior.
It's a common narrative that the beta fsd is Tesla's selling point. Unfortunately, the attach rate of fsd is 11%, so clearly people are not buying Teslas for the beta fsd.
I just don't understand all these gymnastics to say there is no competition.
So it can't even beat the Plaid's performance? For 132% of the price? Man I'm starting to lose even more faith in Lucid.
People in this sub are very divorced from consumers.
Most people spending 160k on a luxury car would rather have the greater range and far nicer interior over going from 0-60 0.5s faster in perfect conditions.
Again, just don't understand these gymnastics to say there's no competition lol. Notice how easy it was to shut down the "fsd is Tesla's main selling point narrative?"
The Mach-e is a decent EV for a non-Tesla, but I looked into getting one and they really aren’t comparable. Also, you should be comparing it to a model Y or possibly a 3, not the S/X. Those cars massively outsold it, and even the S/X had significantly higher sales despite the X not being available this quarter.
> Lucid is beating Tesla's max range.
That doesn't mean anything. Lucid has to build a car with same battery size, same tech, same profit margins and then sell it for same price or less.
Till now no one has ticked all the boxes reliably
That's not how competition works. Everyone doesn't build the exact same thing to compete, lol.
I'm gonna pretend direct competitors aren't actually building similar cars with similar features and instead will choose to focus on your stupid claim.
You said that Lucid beat Tesla on range and I said that range alone doesn't mean anything because Lucid has to sell an overall better car to "beat Tesla", otherwise I can build a car with a 400kWh battery that goes for $10M and claim I have beat everyone on the planet.
No, you said
> Lucid has to build a car with same battery size, same tech, same profit margins and then sell it for same price or less.
You did not say lucids card has to be overall better, which is subjective anyway.
I've seen plenty of reviews saying lucid has more range and a far nicer interior while offering plenty of speed. To me that's better than the plaid around the same price. That's competitive.
What I said, is Lucid has to match (or exceed) all those things while costing the same and having similar profit margins.
If all those things aren't true you can't claim Lucid has beat Tesla.
Where did I claim Lucid has beat Tesla? I'm saying there's competition.
You keep misreading things both of us are writing and then arguing against your misunderstanding while insulting me and breaking subreddit rules.
I said "lucid beats Tesla's max range." That's an inarguable fact. Getting triggered about it doesn't change that.
I did not say "lucid beats Tesla."
It’s funny that German manufacturers are beating Ford and Chevy on their own turf when the Germans make most of their sales in Europe
Competition is coming?
in Europe yes but not in the US
I was kinda joking that competition is coming for Ford and Chevy, only :)
Betcha next quarter they're still above 75%!!!
Model Y hasn't properly ramped production yet. With Texas opening up soon it could be above what it is now.
Ppl still but the i3? Are they dumb?
Yeah well it's not a bad car I'd you can get a deal on it?
Can anyone give me a non-biased answer as to why someone might purchase a ID4 over a Model Y? Aren’t they in the same price bracket with the Y having better performance?? I don’t understand why someone would choose that over a Y.
Just some thoughts:
"I think the car looks better" (very subjective to the buyer)
"The Model Y is too large"
"I've always bought VW and had good experiences (e.g. I know the can perform great aftermarket service)"
"There is a VW dealer close to my home and I just went in one day to take a look"
"My company has a fleet contract with VW and they gave us a great deal"
"They were able to provide me with better financing options"
People are using different methods to decide which car they want to buy and some can't/won't do Excel sheet comparisons.
Tesla is doing great and the numbers show they have compelling products.
Also some people just plain refuse to get a Tesla. For some odd reason.
Usually because of Elon.
Also; some company car policies have a restricted vehicle list that you can order from.
Awesome, thanks for compiling those. Definitely makes sense when you put it like that!
ID.4 starting price is around 10k cheaper, around same as Model 3 SR+. Wait time could be reason also. You would have to wait Model Y over 6 months now or alternatively you could get ID.4 within a month or so.
S and x should be split in this summary (or some other models should be regrouped). Yet, very impressive
There were no X sold anyway so it doesn't matter.
Very true 🙃 totally forgot it was refreshed
I’m surprised the i3 is still going as a new car…
I thought they cancelled it in USA
Yea - same here…
Taycan backlog 3years.
Yeah what’s going on with that, didn’t Porsche sell any in the USA? Are they only selling in Europe atm?
good luck to anyone that bought legacy ev's.
Tesla might be pricey, but at least they've proven their material science and haven't had any cars blow up.
I’m wondering why anyone would buy anything but a Tesla. Tesla should be closer to 95% market share
Shocked pikachu face
who are buying mach-e and id4?
If I am limited to get a non Tesla car, the only car I would consider is hyundai Ioniq 5
Afik that's not on sale until next year in USA?
Yeah. Every media outlet is making such a big deal out of VW’s ID.4. I’m sure it’s nice, but Tesla is still running away with the race