UK appears to defy dire ‘freedom day’ predictions as Covid cases fall
By - hitch21
> Even Johnson has restrained himself, privately telling his aides: “We need to see if this is a bactrian camel or a dromedary – does it have one hump or two?”
I like that leaks of Johnson's private comments are self-authenticating
I’m sorry but I’m not convinced that those are real words
Does The Guardian produce new article that is either overly celebratory or in total fear every day, purely based on that day's number of infections?
If the number of infections goes up: Whoooppppeeeee attack Tories and Boris again!
If the number of infections goes down: HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE, WE WANTED DEATHS DAMMIT.
Is any of that true or did you just make it up?
Look at the reaction to the numbers dropping.
Disappointment, when the tone should be jubilant
This very article for one!
You got a quote or a link or is it just a vibe/feeling you get?
I can lead a horse to water...
But you can't find any facts to back you up?
Exactly confirming my point above, thanks
Are we now not in the epidemic of the young? Where it will spread without making much dent on hospital admissions due to middle aged parents and vaccinated older relatives. Previously this was better represented through mandatory school testing, temporarily bumped up by euros.
Just an idea.
Hmmm does the Guardian have any insight into where these hysterical doom filled prophecies were published?
Any actual journalism going on in unearthing why 'experts' who spend all their time on Twitter seething about the Tories might have got it wrong?
The government themselves made similar predictions.
All part of the campaign of fear to change behaviour.
Mate your talking about Boris. The man who refused to lockdown the country for about two months because only the old would die.
Could you elaborate?
The government is removing restrictions but doesn't actually want people to stop wearing masks and so forth, and have said as such. Throughout the pandemic and previously the government has been using behavioural science to push people in specific directions - Google the nudge unit.
I saw it more as a point scoring exercise. Future Boris gets to say either "See!? I told you so!" or "I'm happy I was wrong."
Do you have any examples of nudging during the pandemic?
and whats that direction you absolute doyle.
Yeah after the articles they have published by fearmongering grifters [Gurdasani](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/07/ditching-england-covid-restrictions-dangerous-mass-experiment) and [Pagel](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/13/covid-numbers-england-freedom-day-dont-add-up-strain-nhs), it was the Guardian who led the vanguard of "dire" predictions. Honestly, they are in an absolute state at the moment and I suspect that the extra fear clicks from covid have provided them a lifeline they are desperate to cling to.
Funny because they could instead go with the Telegraph, S*n, Daily Mail route and just double down on the doomsday mongering instead... you know, turn a bad prediction into a blatant lie instead.
I'm actually not all *that* surprised; around where I am, at least, people seem to have been struck by an unusual level of common sense. Everyone is still wearing masks, people're social distancing, and not a huge amount has changed in how people act or do things.
On the other hand maybe it hasn't fully filtered through yet.
Schools closing? I reckon it hasn't filters through yet, but who would mind the virus fucking off.
Right but cases were rising under step 3 covid restrictions. So even if people kept the all same measures voluntarily (which they didn’t, I can point you to many videos clubs, gigs and festivals as well as my own experience) then it wouldn’t solely explain why they would they stop rising.
I’m sure that people aren’t - I was jsut surprised how many people didn’t throw off their masks and start packing in like sardines wherever possible.
Hopefully it’s a nice case study about the effectiveness of vaccines!
Yes, and the over estimation of the effect of NPIs.
On the other hand near me most are not wearing masks or maintaining distance and cramming into shops and pubs.
None of that makes any difference to cases. This is proven by real world data but masks are encouraged for psychological reasons.
I don't understand how cases fall after opening up more.
Can someone with a scientific background in epidemiology explain this to me?
Edit: To the people downvoting, I'm just asking a question, cool your horses.
I don't think anyone has a clear answer. It may not even have anything to do with government policy as the Netherlands have also had strange drop in cases the last couple of weeks on almost the same trajectory as the UK without any big opening up. Could be the heatwave or Euro 2020 having an effect on behaviour/transmissability. Guesswork though. We're still finding out new things about how this virus behaves.
The weather will be a big one. The amount of sunlight and heat we've had recently will utterly obliterate a virus that relies on staying moist for transmission.
The problem will be when the traditional British summer resumes and the rain comes back.
The world is often counter intuitive. Complex systems behave in unexpected ways. "Common sense" isn't scientific truth.
We don't know is the honest answer, and anybody who claims they do is bullshitting you.
Everyone blew off the restrictions during the Euros. That’s when the real opening up happened.
Step 3 was really the grand re-opening. Step 4 was minor in comparison.
Things people do frequently re-opened during Step 3 and whilst there were limits they were more than enough for again what people frequently do. If you picture a restaurant pre-pandemic it isn't full of tables of 20 it is full of couples, single household families or parents dining with children or their own parents etc. Large groups were there, but atypical. Again gatherings of 30 outside, how many houses have dozens of cars outside on a summer's day or evening where they're clearly hosting a big garden party? Not many. It happens, but atypical.
I guess what you could say is that the limits in Step 3 weren't enough to put a big dent into the number of people that someone socialises with on a weekly basis.
I'd also say that the honeymoon phase of Step 3 is fading away. People have rushed to the pub or restaurant and got their fix, the football tournament is now over and schools have finished for the summer. The first two would inflate figures and the last one will deflate figures at a time when that prior inflation has ran out.
At this point someone might say 'but Neil Fergusson said a billion cases per day by September so why is it falling, he has failed again...'.
However, as I posted the other day his team [did model a fall during this period](https://i.postimg.cc/RZFbFTXD/image.png). Do note this is a graph for hospitalisations, but the ratio between cases and admissions isn't really changing now.
Any growth from Step 4 really depends on how much we change behaviour and things like how much of us keep working from home etc. If people are slow to ditch masks and are slow to return to standing *right* next to someone when they're having a chat then the effects of Step 4 are suppressed.
One thing to also consider is the level of antibodies. It is mainly one section of society driving cases, younger people. And their level of antibodies has been rising fast. The [latest data](https://i.postimg.cc/ZqRGSzhq/image.png) only goes up to 4th July but you can see the trends here and picture were we'd be today.
I think that chart also highlights why they are so keen for the young to get vaccinated. You can see that before vaccination began the young had by far the highest level of antibodies, but growth was slow until their time came to be vaccinated, it is only vaccination that can get really good levels of protection in the community in a quick space of time.
Just to go back to behavioural change, [Warwick's modelling](https://i.postimg.cc/bJznymRG/image.png) shows this best, you can see two of their lines do peak at this time, and a third just after. Their modelling is based on how much behaviours change, and over how long. You can see the larger the change, and the less time it takes to change, the higher the cases.
We are testing less, so cases could be going up.
More people are testing positive while in hospital.
On the other hand there is also the end to the euro superspreader event, and end of school and summer.
It's been well known for a while that case numbers are not really correlated with government policy. Cases were falling before each lockdown for example.
Give it two to three weeks from so-called freedom day and I reckon we'll be seeing a spike in cases again. I should know as I am currently isolating with my kids and wife as she tested positive two days ago, having been out on so-called freedom day (with a mask on) and got infected by someone who wasn't wearing a mask nor social distancing. She started developing symptoms on Sunday, and lost her taste and smell on Tuesday night, tested Wednesday morning, and result came through on Thursday morning.
How do I know she picked it up on freedom day? She only went out twice last week - once on Monday to go to an outlet village with my daughters and I whilst my son was at school to buy some clothes for a trip to see family (which had to be cancelled), and the second was a day trip to York on the Thursday. Other than that, she never left the house.
Freedom Day was July 19th, so on Monday it'll have been 2 weeks already.
Hope your wife weathers covid ok, it sucks.
Yes but all the events and festivals didn't occur on that day.
just wait 2 weeks!!!
love seeing this out in the wild.
Sucks to hear, hope you and your family are okay.
The wife is climbing the walls, but other than the loss of smell and taste, she has a bit of a headache and some aches and that's it so far. Everyone else has so far tested negative on the LFD tests, but I've read they're about as accurate as tossing a coin, so I don't know what to believe.
Incubation period for delta is more like 3 days. More likely the trip to York.
Not that it matters. Hope she feels better soon.
Didn't know that, I thought it was roughly the same as the other variants, showing symptoms 7-10 after exposure.
If you catch it more than once they're not counting the 2nd time you have it so the numbers look better
That's true but goes nowhere near far enough to explain the current case drop (https://fullfact.org/health/robert-peston-reinfections/)
Look, we've got someone who believes Peston's shit in the sub.
Vaccines. Heard immunity is kicking in.
"Can someone with a scientific background in epidemiology explain this to me?"
This is the most positivity shown from the guardian in 18 month.
That Guardian headline reeks of disappointment.
Testing is also down 14% and we've a had a couple of weeks of pingdemic nonsense in the right wing media, leading to a less efficient track and trace, so until the more meaningful metrics of hospitalisations and deaths start to go down, I won't be holding my breath.
i picture the average user of this sub waking up in the middle of night in a cold sweat, as they nervously check under their bed for the right wing media lol
Testing is down 14.4%, may well be that we’re just missing a lot of cases instead, wait and watch hospital admissions and deaths in the next week or so
Hospital admissions dropped in the latest data release by a couple of hundred
Dashboard for england says 27th was 816 and 28th 728.
You’d never cry foul with cases going up from more testing, so don’t do it with the opposite direction.
I’m not crying foul, I hope cases genuinely are going down but more context is always helpful
If true, the the cases are obviously very mild.
That's funny that is, considering my wife contracted Covid19 on fucking freedom say, from some dick who wasn't wearing a mask (she was, as was my kids and I the whole time we were out) So now she is unable to taste or smell anything, stuck in a bedroom isolating from the rest of us for the next 10 days whilst I attempt to keep the house running, testing the kids and myself and hoping no-one else comes down with it, extending the isolation period any further!
To top it all off, we had to cancel our trip to see family, which we were supposed to be leaving for tomorrow morning (Sunday). Everything had to be cancelled, but still lost out monetarily as we had paid for activities whilst away which stipulate they were non-refundable and non-transferable! £60 down the drain on the activities. We were lucky that the T&C on the hotel was that we could cancel by Thursday without charge so that saved us further cash.
If you can't tell, I am bloody pissed off right now!
How on earth can anyone possible know where they caught it from, unless they caught it from someone they know who then tested positive and even then its hard to say definitely. Your random blaming of someone not wearing a mask is funny. Especially considering masks were only around 30% effective at reducing transmission. Unless you go for the proper ppf2 masks, and if you wear a ppf2 mask, it really doesn't matter if anyone else wears one or doesn't as it reduces transmission by close to 99% with just you wearing one.
Edit: actually it's only 25%. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-29/covid-wearing-masks-reduces-transmission-of-virus-by-25-according-to-research
They can't. He just wants someone to blame.
Well, my wife only went to two places in the week prior to her testing positive so I think I can safely say she was exposed to it at one of those two places (depending on how long the incubation rate is) as I, nor my kids have tested positive so couldn't have passed it onto her.
The fact that my family have not had any scare with Covid over the last 16 months whilst we and other people were wearing masks and social distancing until freedom day, when (in both places) at least 40-50% of the people around us were not wearing masks does make your claim that masks aren't effective a little far fetched. If they aren't effective, why are other countries around the world invoking mask mandates upon their citizens, and keeping this virus completely under control?
Lol delta is airborne and highly contagious someone could have simply breathed it out through their mask. Remember when we all wore masks over xmas and cases rocketed?
Well presumably if your wife caught it then she also was not wearing a mask?
How many times do people have to tell you that a mask is not for protecting you, it's for protecting other people?
That makes no sense.
You said his wife must have not been wearing a mask if she caught it. You've been told repeatedly that masks are tk protect other people, not the wearer. Help me to help you?
Have I been told repeatedly? I'm saying it makes no sense that a mask can protect other people and not yourself.
Honestly mate, if you haven't worked it out by now I can't help you. I will pray for you my child. 🙏
That's the thing, she was wearing a mask, and so were my kids and I. And if she has contracted the Delta variant, then the liklihood of us all getting it significantly increases, as reports from the US CDC were saying last night, the DELTA variant is as contagious as Chicken Pox and is more transmissible than the common cold, the 1918 Spanish Flu, Ebola, SARS and MERS.
see [this link for the CNBC story](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/delta-cdc-warns-variant-is-as-contagious-as-chickenpox-may-make-people-sicker.html)
Only because schools has closed so there is less testing being done. hospitals are seeing growing numbers of covid patients
Patient numbers dropped by 250 in the latest released data. Don’t spread misinformation during a pandemic.
Just speaking for the hospital which I work at (in london) which is having an increase in both non-ICU and ICU patients. I guess that isn't representative of the whole country but some places such as London are experiencing increase
That’s fair enough but you didn’t specify it was about your local area it seemed like a general comment. Hopefully things will calm down near you soon also.
[No it hasn't](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2m2uIzw14k).
Another astounding failure of peoples understanding of statistics however. Cases show how many cases are tested for, maybe just maybe if you send a load of kids home from school and don't test them, cases magically go down!
Yay we did it, Coronavirus is solved, just ignore the bodies in the corner...as was voted for.
What do the ONS base that estimate on?
Testing random samples, a far more accurate testing regime than determining who gets tested in an asymptomatic disease.
Is that the national household scheme?
No, it is [this.](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30july2021)
1. An archived version of _UK appears to defy dire ‘freedom day’ predictions as Covid cases fall_ can be found [here.](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/30/uk-appears-to-defy-dire-freedom-day-predictions-as-covid-cases-fall)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Aren't the government just cutting testing?
I also hear they are excluding people who've already had Covid-19 from the stats so we're not getting figures for those who have caught it multiple times
No it's not. It's about 3-7 days
I obviously misremembered my bad, turns out its 2 to14 days with outliers up to 27 days